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Resilience Analysis for Complex Supply Chain Systems Using Bayesian Networks

机译:使用贝叶斯网络的复杂供应链系统的弹性分析

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The concept of engineering resilience has received a prevalent attention from academia as well as industry because it contributes a new means of thinking about how to withstand against disruptions and recover properly. Although the concept of resilience was scholarly explored in diverse disciplines, there are only few which focus on how to quantitatively measure the engineering resilience. This paper is dedicated to explore the gap between quantitative and qualitative assessment of engineering resilience in the domain of designing complex engineered systems in industrial applications. A conceptual framework is first proposed for modeling engineering resilience, and then Bayesian network is employed as a quantitative tool for the modeling and analysis of engineering resilience for complex systems. An industrial-based case study of supply chain is further studied to demonstrate the proposed approach. The proposed resilience quantification and analysis approach using Bayesian networks would empower system designers to have a better grasp of the weakness and strength of their own systems against system disruptions induced by adverse failure events.
机译:工程弹性的概念已经引起了学术界和工业界的广泛关注,因为它为思考如何抵御破坏和正确恢复提供了新的思路。尽管在各种学科中都对弹性的概念进行了研究,但很少有人关注如何定量地测量工程弹性。本文致力于探讨在工业应用中设计复杂的工程系统领域中工程弹性的定量和定性评估之间的差距。首先提出了用于工程弹性建模的概念框架,然后将贝叶斯网络用作定量工具,用于复杂系统的工程弹性建模和分析。进一步研究了基于工业的供应链案例研究,以证明所提出的方法。提出的使用贝叶斯网络的弹性量化和分析方法将使系统设计人员能够更好地掌握自身系统的弱点和强度,以应对不良故障事件引起的系统破坏。

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