• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>IEEE Transactions on Reliability >Predictive Resilience Analysis of Complex Systems Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks
【24h】

Predictive Resilience Analysis of Complex Systems Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

机译：基于动态贝叶斯网络的复杂系统的预测弹性分析

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
       
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Uncertain and potentially harsh operating environments are often known to alter the operational performance of a system. In order to maintain system performance while coping with varying operating environments and potential disruptions, the resilience of engineered systems is desirable. Engineering systems are often interconnected in a dimensional way inherently from basic components to subsystems to the system of systems, which poses a grand challenge for system designers to analyze the resilience of such a complex system. Moreover, further complications in the assessment of resilience in the engineering domain are attributed to time-varying system performances, random perturbation occurrences, and probable failures caused by adverse events. This paper presents a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) approach for the modeling and predictive resilience analysis for dynamic engineered systems. With the inter-time-slice links and the conditional probability tables in a DBN, the system performance could be molded as changing in a discrete time slice, while capturing the temporal probabilistic dependencies between the variables. An industrial-based case study of an electricity distribution system is further studied to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DBN approach for resilience analysis. The approach presented in this paper hopes to aid in realizing resiliency in system designs and to pave the way toward enhancements in developing resilient engineered systems.
机译：不确定和潜在的恶劣操作环境通常会改变系统的操作性能。为了在应对变化的操作环境和潜在中断的同时保持系统性能，需要工程系统的弹性。从基本组件到子系统，再到系统系统，工程系统通常以固有的尺寸互连方式，这对系统设计人员分析这种复杂系统的弹性提出了巨大的挑战。此外，工程领域的弹性评估中的其他复杂性还归因于随时间变化的系统性能，随机扰动发生以及由不良事件引起的可能的故障。本文提出了一种动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）方法，用于动态工程系统的建模和预测弹性分析。借助时间片间链接和DBN中的条件概率表，可以捕获离散变量中的时间变化，从而塑造系统性能，同时捕获变量之间的时间概率依存关系。进一步研究了基于工业的配电系统案例研究，以证明DBN方法在弹性分析中的有效性。本文提出的方法希望有助于实现系统设计的弹性，并为增强开发弹性工程系统铺平道路。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号