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Market volume estimation of thin-haul On-Demand Air Mobility services in Germany

机译：德国轻型按需空中交通服务的市场规模估计

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Upcoming advances in the area of electric flight and flight automation enable provision of sustainable and price competitive thin-haul On-Demand Air Mobility (ODAM) services using pilotless CS-23 class aircraft in mid-term future. These services promise a significant increase in travel speed for a larger part of the population as an alternative to current ground based transportation systems. The competitiveness of ODAM services depends, amongst others, on access and egress times and costs to usable airfields, which significantly impacts the potential market volume. In order to estimate the thin-haul ODAM market volume for Germany, a comprehensive analysis of the entire German population and their distances to feasible airfields is performed, which is based on Census 2011 data dividing Germany into squares of one by one km2. Additionally, a transport demand model as well as a preference choice model based on opportunity costs are derived for Germany. A market share of 19% or 235 million trips are estimated with this methodology assuming passenger specific costs of 0.4 €/km for ODAM services, 0.3 €/km for cars and 0.32 €/km for contemporary commercial CS-25 aircraft. The market share shows a distinct sensitivity on the cost gap between car and ODAM costs. If ODAM costs are 0.2 €/km more expensive than car costs the market share decreases to 2% or 24 million trips. Aircraft considered for ODAM services should achieve runway performances below 800 m, accommodate two to four passenger seats and achieve max. ranges of 400-500 km including reserves.
机译：电动飞行和飞行自动化领域中即将出现的进步使得在中期将来可以使用无人驾驶CS-23飞机来提供可持续的和具有价格竞争力的薄型按需空中机动性（ODAM）服务。这些服务有望取代现有的地面交通系统，大大提高人口的行进速度。 ODAM服务的竞争力尤其取决于进入和离开时间以及可用机场的成本，这极大地影响了潜在的市场量。为了估算德国的薄型ODAM市场量，我们根据2011年人口普查数据将德国划分为一乘一平方的平方面积，对整个德国人口及其到可行机场的距离进行了综合分析。此外，还为德国导出了运输需求模型以及基于机会成本的偏好选择模型。假设ODAM服务的乘客特定成本为0.4欧元/公里，汽车为0.3欧元/公里和当代商用CS-25飞机为0.32欧元/公里，则此方法估计的市场份额为19％或2.35亿次旅行。市场份额对汽车和ODAM成本之间的成本差距表现出明显的敏感性。如果ODAM成本比汽车成本高0.2欧元/公里，则市场份额将减少2％，即减少2400万人次。被考虑用于ODAM服务的飞机应实现800 m以下的跑道性能，可容纳2至4个乘客座位，并达到最大值。包括保护区在内的400-500公里范围。

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