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Analysis of Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Garlic Based on HP Filter Method

机译:基于HP过滤法的大蒜价格波动特征及影响因素分析

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In order to analyze the fluctuation regulation of garlic price from a large number of garlic prices data, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the garlic price data by using the HP filtering analysis method. Firstly analyzing the seasonal effect on garlic price volatility using CensusX12 seasonal adjustment method; secondly, the monthly data of garlic price in Shandong garlic wholesale market from January 2010 to December 2017 was decomposed by HP filtering. So the original sequence, the long-term trend sequence, and the cyclic variation sequence were obtained after the garlic price season was adjusted. Since January 2010, the fluctuation of garlic monthly prices can be divided into 5 cycles. After sorting out the regulation of garlic price and consulting a lot of data, it is concluded that the price of garlic is affected by planting area and natural conditions, and it is easy to cause market speculation and blindly follow suit.
机译:为了从大量的大蒜价格数据中分析大蒜价格的波动规律,本文采用HP过滤分析方法对大蒜价格数据进行了深入的分析。首先使用CensusX12季节调整方法分析季节对大蒜价格波动的影响;其次,通过HP过滤对2010年1月至2017年12月山东大蒜批发市场大蒜价格的月度数据进行了分解。因此,在调整大蒜价格季节后,获得了原始序列,长期趋势序列和周期性变化序列。自2010年1月以来,大蒜月度价格的波动可分为5个周期。整理大蒜价格调控规律并参考大量数据后,认为大蒜价格受种植面积和自然条件的影响,容易引起市场投机,一味追随。

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