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Common Methodology for Effectively Forecasting the Subscriber’s Daily Natural Gas Consumption

机译:有效预测订户每日天然气消耗的通用方法

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Cutting costs and improving operational efficiency is something that energy and utility companies are continually working towards. It’s a constant battle, and the work is never complete. Energy and utility companies must focus on longer-term goals to ensure appropriate hedging and maximize profitability, but the high-resolution accuracy provided by load forecasting limits the amount of money wasted in the short-term. This requires insight into expected seasonal weather patterns and accurate demand planning and any immediate changes in the approaching weather. This study proposes a common methodology for effectively forecasting daily consumption through the statistical processing of input data, and stochastic optimization methods are applied. The input data are certain indicators of the factors influencing the consumption process. These indicators are sampled in the stochastic process.
机译:削减成本和提高运营效率是能源和公用事业公司不断努力的目标。这是一场持续不断的战斗,工作从未完成。能源和公用事业公司必须专注于长期目标,以确保适当的对冲并最大程度地提高盈利能力,但是负荷预测所提供的高分辨率准确性限制了短期内浪费的资金数量。这需要洞悉预期的季节性天气模式,准确的需求计划以及临近天气的任何立即变化。这项研究提出了一种通用方法,可以通过对输入数据进行统计处理来有效地预测日消费量,并应用随机优化方法。输入数据是影响消费过程的因素的某些指标。这些指标是在随机过程中抽样的。

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