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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Agro-geoinformatics >Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Olive Yield in the Mediterranean Region, Turkey
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Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Olive Yield in the Mediterranean Region, Turkey

机译：厄尔尼诺南部涛动（ENSO）和北大西洋涛动（NAO）对土耳其地中海地区橄榄产量的影响

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Turkey ranks the 5th in the world in terms of total olive fields, and the 4th in terms of olive production. Although this ranking varies over the years because of the periodicity feature of the olive, Turkey is an important olive producer country in Mediterranean. The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is a member of the maquis community that is involved in the natural vegetation of the Mediterranean climate. It is accepted as a bioindicator that characterizes this zone because of its good adaptation to the Mediterranean climate. According to the report of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the year 2016 was determined as the year with the highest global average temperatures (1880-2018). It is considered that the variability in climatic conditions and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events (extreme precipitaion, floods, extreme temperatures, heat waves, hail, etc.) that have been occurring frequently in recent years are associated with the changes in the large-scale pressure and wind circulation and atmospheric oscillations (with direct and indirect effects, e.g. NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation, AO-Arctic Oscillation and ENSO-El Nino Southern Oscillation, etc.). In this study, the effects of Southern Oscillation (El Nino/ La Nina) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the olive yield in Turkey will be examined. The objective of this study is to a.) determining the statistical relationship between climatic conditions and atmospheric index values during the phenological periods of olives, b) determining the effects of oscillations on yield by examining the years of strong atmospheric oscillation indexes and yield values on the line graph. To do this, the phenological periods of the olive were determined. Daily average temperature data of 48 years covering the years 1970-2017 for Adana, Osmaniye, Kahramanmaraş, Antalya, Mersin and Iskenderun meteorological stations, and daily average total rainfall data were used as the climatic data. Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 and ONI indexes representing the El Nino activities and effective during the 1970-2017 period and the NAOI index representing the North Atlantic Oscillation were used. The relationship between the monthly average temperatures which were effective in the phenological period of olive and the atmospheric index values was statistically analyzed according to Pearson correlation coefficient method. As a result of the analyses, statistically significant relationships varying between 40-64% were found between average temperatures during the flowering and first initiation of fruit period among the phenological periods of the olive and Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 indexes. Statistically significant relationships varying between 38-60% were found between total rainfall and Nino indexes. In addition, no statistically significant relationship was found between North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and climatic conditions. In order to determine the effect of the oscillations on yield by determining the yield values on the line graph with the years with strong atmospheric oscillation indexes, yield values of the olive covering the years between 1991-2017 were used. According to this, the yield of olive was below the average in the strong El Nino years, which were determined as 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015 and 2016. These years in general correspond to the periods when drought was experienced in the area including the Mediterranean Region in Turkey.
机译：土耳其在橄榄园总数方面排名世界第五，在橄榄产量方面排名第四。尽管由于橄榄的周期性特征，该排名多年来有所变化，但土耳其还是地中海重要的橄榄生产国。橄榄树（Olea europaea L.）是maquis社区的一员，它参与了地中海气候的自然植被。由于它对地中海气候的良好适应性，因此被认为是该地区的生物指标。根据世界气象组织（WMO）的报告，2016年被确定为全球平均气温最高的年份（1880-2018年）。人们认为，近年来气候变化和极端天气事件（极端降水，洪水，极端温度，热浪，冰雹等）的发生频率不断增加，与大气候的变化有关。尺度的压力，风环流和大气振荡（具有直接和间接影响，例如NAO-北大西洋涛动，AO-北极涛动和ENSO-El Nino南方涛动等）。在这项研究中，将研究南部涛动（El Nino / La Nina）和北大西洋涛动（NAO）对土耳其橄榄产量的影响。这项研究的目的是：a。确定橄榄物候期的气候条件与大气指数值之间的统计关系，b）通过检查强大气振荡指数和产量指数的年限来确定振荡对产量的影响。折线图。为此，确定了橄榄的物候期。将阿达纳，奥斯曼尼耶，卡哈拉马纳拉什，安塔利亚，梅尔辛和伊斯肯德伦等气象站的1970-2017年的48年日平均气温数据和日平均总降雨量数据用作气候数据。使用了代表El Nino活动且在1970-2017年期间有效的Nino 3，Nino 3.4，Nino 4和ONI指数以及代表北大西洋涛动的NAOI指数。根据皮尔森相关系数法，统计分析了在橄榄物候期有效的月平均气温与大气指数之间的关系。分析的结果是，在橄榄和Nino 3.4和Nino 3指数的物候期之间，发现开花期和果实初生期的平均温度之间的统计学显着关系在40-64％之间变化。在总降雨量和Nino指数之间发现，统计上的显着关系在38-60％之间变化。此外，在北大西洋涛动指数（NAOI）与气候条件之间没有发现统计学上的显着关系。为了通过确定具有强烈大气振荡指数的年份的折线图上的产量值来确定振荡对产量的影响，使用了涵盖1991-2017年之间年份的橄榄的产量值。据此，在1991年，1997年，2009年，2015年和2016年的强厄尔尼诺年份，橄榄的产量低于平均水平。这些年份通常对应于该地区经历干旱的时期，包括在土耳其的地中海地区。

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