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Risk of China-Europe Railway Transportation with Bayesian Network Model

机译：贝叶斯网络模型的中欧铁路运输风险

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Because of many kinds of goods and links in China-Europe railway transportation, the whole process is faced with multiple risks. In this paper, firstly, based on the theory of security system, constructs a risk evaluation index system based on 5M factors; secondly, sets the target node, intermediate node and evidence node of Bayesian Network(BN), calculates these nodes probability; thirdly, uses MATLAB software to carry out forward reasoning, backward reasoning and support reasoning; finally, determines the policy environment, business proficiency, nature of goods, safety consciousness and legal environment, these five factors are belonging to risk level IV, which will strongly interfere with the normal transportation process of China-Europe railway transportations. The government and enterprise managers must to focus on the prevention and control of such risk factors.
机译：由于中欧铁路运输中存在多种商品和联系，整个过程面临多重风险。本文首先基于安全系统理论，构建了基于5M因素的风险评估指标体系。其次，设置贝叶斯网络的目标节点，中间节点和证据节点，计算出这些节点的概率。第三，使用MATLAB软件进行正向推理，向后推理和支持推理。最后，确定政策环境，业务能力，商品性质，安全意识和法律环境，这五个因素均属于风险等级IV，这将严重干扰中欧铁路运输的正常运输过程。政府和企业管理者必须集中精力预防和控制此类风险因素。

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