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A Bayesian Analysis of Return Dynamics with Stochastic Volatility and Lévy Jumps

机译:带有随机波动率和Lévy跳跃的收益动力学的贝叶斯分析。

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We develop BayesianMarkov chain Monte Carlo methods for inferences of continuous-time models with stochastic volatility and infinite-activity Lévy jumps using discretely sampled data. Simulation studies show that (I) our methods provide accurate joint identification of di.usion, stochastic volatility, and Lévy jumps, and (ii) a.ne jump-di.usion models fail to adequately approximate the behavior of infinite-activity jumps. In particular, the affine jump-diffusion models fail to capture the “infinitely many”small Lévy jumps which are too big for Brownian motion to model and too small for compound Poisson process to capture. Empirical studies show that infinite-activity Lévy jumps are essential for modeling the S&P 500 index returns.
机译:我们开发了BayesianMarkov链蒙特卡罗方法,用于使用离散采样数据推断具有随机波动性和无限活动的Lévy跳的连续时间模型。仿真研究表明(I)我们的方法可以提供对扩散,随机波动性和Lévy跳跃的准确联合识别,以及(ii)跳跃-扩散模型无法充分近似无限活动跳跃的行为。尤其是,仿射跳跃扩散模型无法捕获“无限多”的小Lévy跳跃,这些跳跃对于Brownian运动来说无法建模,而对于复合Poisson过程也无法捕获。实证研究表明,无限活跃的Lévy跳跃对于建模S&P 500指数回报至关重要。

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