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Demand Analysis on Engines of Iron and Steel Industry Output Growth

机译:钢铁行业产量增长引擎需求分析

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The paper is devoted to empirical analysis of some major demand factors that impact on steel industry between 1999 and 2006, based on VECM. The result of cointegration test shows that there is long-term equilibrium relationship among real estate industry,relative downstream industries, steel exports and steel industry. When the sales of real estate industry, relative downstream industries and steel exports increased 1%,will make steel output rise by 51.4%, 34.5% and 13.2% respectively; Meanwhile, Although real estate, relative downstream industries and the steel export have different degree impacts on steel output, they are positive; The result of variance analysis also shows that real estate will play a major role, and steel exports will play a minimum role on steel output fluctuations.
机译:本文基于VECM,对1999年至2006年期间影响钢铁行业的一些主要需求因素进行了实证分析。协整检验的结果表明,房地产业,相对下游产业,钢铁出口与钢铁产业之间存在长期均衡关系。当房地产业销售,相关下游产业和钢铁出口增长1%时,将使钢铁产量分别增长51.4%,34.5%和13.2%;同时,房地产,下游相关产业和钢铁出口对钢铁产量的影响程度不同,但都是积极的。方差分析的结果还表明,房地产将在钢铁产量波动中起主要作用,而钢铁出口将起最小作用。

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