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An Integrated Method for Commercialization Potential Evaluation of Emerging Technology Based on TFA

机译:基于TFA的新兴技术商业化潜力评估综合方法

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Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for classical technology assessment.Decision-making more and more requires the information on the potential consequences of the advent of new technologies before they are widely industrialized.So technology forecasting experts have already achieved the mutual recognition of the commercialization potential evaluation of emerging technologies should be operated at the early stages. This paper proposes an integrated method for commercialization potential evaluation of emerging technologies by using technology future analysis. The proposed integrated method combined the subjective judgment and objective perspectives, which is to make the primary selection of large amount of emerging technology options using the tools for the subjective judgment, such as, nominal group analysis; ANP, and the stakeholder analysis; then, to provide reasoning via objective facts for emerging technologies selected at the primary stage using the tools for the objective judgment, such as, bibliometrics analysis and patent analysis. The overall framework and detailed procedures are illustrated at last.
机译:新兴技术给经典技术评估带来了巨大挑战,决策过程越来越需要在新技术广泛工业化之前提供有关新技术出现的潜在后果的信息,因此技术预测专家已经实现了对商业化潜力评估的相互认可新兴技术应在早期阶段进行操作。本文提出了一种利用技术未来分析对新兴技术进行商业化潜力评估的综合方法。所提出的综合方法结合了主观判断和客观观点,这是使用主观判断工具(例如名义组分析)对大量新兴技术选择进行主要选择的方法。 ANP和利益相关者分析;然后,通过客观事实为在初级阶段选择的新兴技术提供客观的推理,使用诸如文献计量学分析和专利分析之类的客观判断工具。最后说明了整个框架和详细过程。

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