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首页> 外文会议>The 2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2008年安全科学技术国际会议)论文集 >Combined Technique of Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management System
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Combined Technique of Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management System

机译：故障树分析与贝叶斯网络相结合的空中交通管理系统风险评估

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摘要

According to the advantages of both fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BN) in risk assessment, a new technique combining FTA and BN is proposed to provide a robust probabilistic method of reasoning under uncertainty. By this method we can not only get the ordinary results but also obtain some additional data such as posterior probabilities at modeling and analysis level. The paper introduces the algorithm of converting fault tree (FT) to BN, takes risk assessment of mid-air collision in air traffic management (ATM) system as an example, and discusses the advantages of applying this technique to ATM safety risk assessment. Modeling and calculation are processed using GeNIe software. Result shows that the proposed FT-BN combined technique can model and assess the risk more easily and accurately.
机译：根据故障树分析（FTA）和贝叶斯网络（BN）的风险评估的优点，提出了一种结合FTA和BN的新技术，以提供在不确定度下的稳健概率方法。通过这种方法，我们不仅可以获得普通结果，而且还可以获得一些额外的数据，如建模和分析水平。本文介绍了将故障树（FT）转换为BN的算法，以空中交通管理（ATM）系统中空气冲突的风险评估为例，探讨了将该技术应用于ATM安全风险评估的优势。使用Genie软件处理建模和计算。结果表明，所提出的FT-BN组合技术可以更容易和准确地模拟和评估风险。

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