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首页> 外文会议>Business and Information Management, 2008. ISBIM '08 >The Study of Cluster Predication Method on Sales Forecast Based on Residual Error Modified GM (1, 1)
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The Study of Cluster Predication Method on Sales Forecast Based on Residual Error Modified GM (1, 1)

机译：基于残差修正GM（1，1）的销售预测的聚类预测方法研究

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摘要

The amount of sales un-house is important basis for inventory management of commerce enterprises. Through carefully analyzing about previous researching results, we find that tradition forecasting methods, such as time series analysis, regression analysis, Kalman filtering and the predictions of neural networks, have some defects in large information demanding, the numerical instability and insensibility to environment changes. So, based on GM (1,1) model and combining calamity grey prediction at residual hour, this paper establishes a REM-GM (1,1) model and with the aid of cluster prediction method successfully forecasts the amount of sales un-house of commerce enterprises. The empirical studies observe that the model of un-house forecasting, no matter whether one step forecast or multi-step long time forecast, has a more remarkable prediction precision.
机译：空置销售量是商业企业库存管理的重要依据。通过仔细分析以前的研究结果，我们发现传统的预测方法，例如时间序列分析，回归分析，卡尔曼滤波和神经网络的预测，在大信息需求，数值不稳定和对环境变化的敏感性方面存在一些缺陷。因此，基于GM（1,1）模型并结合剩余时间的灾害灰色预测，建立了REM-GM（1,1）模型，并借助聚类预测方法成功预测了未售房屋的销售量。商业企业。实证研究表明，无论是一步预测还是多步长时间预测，非房屋预测模型的预测精度都更高。

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