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ARC Population and Employment Allocation Disaggregator - A Simple GISbased Tool for Parcel-Scale Population Projection

机译：ARC人口和就业分配分类器-用于包裹规模人口预测的基于GIS的简单工具

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Continued development of urban areas requires careful planning to ensure adequateresources are provided for growing industry and population while sustaining ahealthy environment. This paper will discuss the on-going development of a GISbasedsoftware tool, developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), forprojecting future development of the Atlanta Metropolitan Region. With this tool, theARC can model growth of projected populations at fine scales, and thereby estimatefuture demands for transportation infrastructure, water, and other utilities.The Atlanta metropolitan area is a 22-county region in the northwest corner ofGeorgia, with a burgeoning population of approximately 5 million. By land area,Atlanta is the fastest growing city in the world with some of the highest commutetimes in the United States. Continued development strains Atlanta’s resources moreand more. The ARC is dedicated to unifying the region's collective resources toprepare for a prosperous future. It does so through professional planning initiatives,the provision of objective information and the involvement of the community incollaborative partnerships.To help adequately plan for future growth, the ARC has developed the ARCPopulation and Employment Allocation Disaggregation tool, an ESRI ArcMAPextension. The tool employs a two-step disaggregation procedure. Starting with asingle region-wide population and employment projection (2000-2050) provided by aRegional Economic Models, INC (REMI) model, the tool first disaggregates thisprojection to large planning regions called super-districts. The ARC then adjusts theplanning level projections manually to match their expectation for growth – and thoseof Atlanta’s stakeholder community; city governments, developers, etc. The tool thendisaggregates the superdistrict-scale projections to parcel scale by using map-basedfactors such as major roads and expressway ramps to estimate likelihood ofdevelopment and allocating new growth to the most likely areas first. When theprojection is at parcel scale, statistics for demands on the travel and utility networkscan be calculated and used in forecasting future travel demands on the transportationsystem. The tool also provides a calibration procedure that compares modeledgrowth to actual growth and finds the set of model parameters that minimizesdifferences between the two.
机译：持续发展的城市地区需要仔细计划以确保足够 为不断发展的产业和人口提供资源，同时维持 健康的环境。本文将讨论基于GIS的持续开发 亚特兰大地区委员会（ARC）开发的软件工具，用于 预测亚特兰大都会区的未来发展。有了这个工具， ARC可以在精细尺度上对预计人口的增长进行建模，从而进行估算 未来对运输基础设施，水和其他公用事业的需求。 亚特兰大都市区是22个县的西北角 佐治亚州，人口迅速增长，大约有500万。按土地面积 亚特兰大是世界上发展最快的城市，通勤率最高 美国的时代。持续的发展使亚特兰大的资源更加紧张 和更多。 ARC致力于统一该地区的集体资源，以 为繁荣的未来做准备。它通过专业的计划活动来做到这一点， 提供客观信息并让社区参与 合作伙伴关系。 为了充分规划未来的增长，ARC开发了ARC 人口和就业分配分类工具，ESRI ArcMAP 扩大。该工具采用两步分解程序。以a开头 人口普查提供的单一区域范围内的人口和就业预测（2000-2050年） 区域经济模型（IN）（REMI）模型，该工具首先将其分类 投影到称为超级区的大型规划区域。然后，ARC会调整 手动规划水平预测，以使其符合增长预期-以及 亚特兰大的利益相关者社区;市政府，开发商等。然后使用该工具 通过使用基于地图的地图将超区比例投影分解为地块比例 诸如主要道路和高速公路坡道之类的因素来估算 发展并首先将新的增长分配给最有可能的领域。当。。。的时候 预测处于包裹规模，对差旅和公用事业网络的需求进行统计 可以计算出来并用于预测运输中未来的出行需求 系统。该工具还提供了一个校准过程，可以将建模后的模型进行比较。 增长到实际增长，并找到最小化的模型参数集 两者之间的差异。

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