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首页> 外文会议>Canadian Society for Civil Engineering annual conference >STOCHASTIC-BASED FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT OF SO2 EMISSION FROM A POWER STATION
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STOCHASTIC-BASED FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT OF SO2 EMISSION FROM A POWER STATION

机译：电站二氧化硫排放的随机模糊风险评估

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The risk associated with pollutants generated from a power plant often refers to the chance ofdamaging environment or human health through various exposure pathways. Based on the fact that thecontaminant concentrations in ambient air predicted from a numerical model are usually associated withtemporally and/or spatially varied probabilistic uncertainties in modeling inputs and parameters, thedeterministic standards are difficult to be directly implemented, which leads to the consequence of theviolation of relevant environmental/health criteria that linked with possibilistic uncertainties. Aiming at suchan issue, a stochastic-based fuzzy risk assessment approach was developed for systematicallyexamining the uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and healthevaluation criteria in an ambient air quality management system. Monte Carlo simulation for SO2dispersion in the atmosphere was first conducted through a regulatory steady-state plume numericalmodeling system; and based on the modeling results, an in-depth fuzzy risk assessment was furtheremployed to quantify the environmental-guideline-based risk (ER), the human health risk (HR) and thegeneral risk levels (GRL) due to SO2 inhalation through fuzzy membership functions and rule basesacquired from a questionnaire survey. The developed approach was applied to a thermal power station inCanada. Scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed and various risk levelswere generated. The results indicated that the integration of stochastic simulation and fuzzy assessmentwould offer an effective tool for quantifying various modeling uncertainties and evaluating their effects inrisk levels. The developed approach and research findings would provide realistic support for relateddecision-making processes.
机译：与发电厂产生的污染物相关的风险通常是指 通过各种暴露途径破坏环境或人类健康。基于以下事实： 通过数值模型预测的环境空气中的污染物浓度通常与 在对输入和参数进行建模时，时间和/或空间变化的概率不确定性， 确定性标准很难直接实施，这导致了 违反与可能的不确定性相关的相关环境/健康标准。瞄准这样 一个问题，为了系统地开发了基于随机的模糊风险评估方法 检查与现场条件，环境准则和健康相关的不确定性 环境空气质量管理系统中的评估标准。 SO2的蒙特卡洛模拟 大气中的弥散首先是通过调节稳态羽状流数值进行的 建模系统;根据建模结果，进一步进行了深入的模糊风险评估 用于量化基于环境准则的风险（ER），人类健康风险（HR）和 通过模糊隶属函数和规则库吸入二氧化硫导致的一般风险水平（GRL） 从问卷调查中获得。所开发的方法已应用于瑞典的火力发电厂 加拿大。分析了具有不同环境质量准则的方案并分析了各种风险等级 产生了。结果表明，随机模拟与模糊评估相结合 将提供一个有效的工具来量化各种建模不确定性并评估它们的影响。 风险水平。制定的方法和研究结果将为相关工作提供现实的支持。 决策过程。

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