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首页> 外文会议>The Jordan River and Dead Sea Basin : Cooperation amid conflict >A LONG-TERM VIEW OF WATER AND SECURITY: INTERNATIONAL WATERS, NATIONAL ISSUES AND REGIONAL TENSIONS
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A LONG-TERM VIEW OF WATER AND SECURITY: INTERNATIONAL WATERS, NATIONAL ISSUES AND REGIONAL TENSIONS

机译：水与安全的长期观点：国际水域，国家问题和区域紧张局势

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Water management is, by definition, conflict management. It is a resource on which we all depend, it fluctuates in time and space and its management is usually fragmented. That said, there is no such thing as managing water for a single purpose - all water management is multi-objective and based on navigating competing interests. Nevertheless, conflict is not a given. While it may be the focus of press reports of international waters, there is clear evidence from around the world that water issues also induce cooperation. This is even the case in "hostile" basins where disputes rage over other issues, such as the Jordan River basin. There is certainly a long history of tensions over, or related to, shared freshwater resources, but there is also a lengthy, and in many ways deeper, history of water-related cooperation. Despite empirical research that finds that water-related cooperation overwhelms conflict over the last 50 years (see, most recently, Wolf et al., 2003), prevailing theories fail to explain this phenomenon. Why do countries that share a basin cooperate on water, even when they will not cooperate over other issues? By any quantitative measure, water should be the most conflictive of resources, not an elixir that drives enemies to craft functioning and resilient institutional arrangements. We examine these questions historically, yet, recognizing that history-based indicators may lose validity over time in a rapidly changing world, we focus on future issues that may look nothing like the past. Five critical areas related to water resources will change dramatically in coming years:1. New technologies for negotiation and management are being implemented, changing the face of both.2. Globalization, privatization and the WTO are impacting our valuation of water, and its place in relation to rights and responsibilities.3. Global climate change may shift precipitation patterns, dramatically impacting water resources management.4. The geopolitics of desalination is shifting, as cost becomes viable at a larger scale.5. The nature of conflict and cooperation are changing in both scope and scale.
机译：从定义上讲，水管理是冲突管理。它是我们所有人赖以生存的资源，它随时间和空间波动，其管理通常是分散的。就是说，没有这样的事情来实现单一目的的水资源管理-所有水资源管理都是多目标的，并且是在相互竞争的利益基础上进行的。然而，冲突不是必然的。尽管这可能是国际水域新闻报道的重点，但世界各地有明显证据表明，水问题也引起了合作。在“敌对”流域，甚至在约旦河流域等其他问题引起争议的情况下，情况甚至如此。与共享淡水资源有关或与之有关的紧张关系固然有很长的历史，但与水有关的合作也有悠久的历史，而且在许多方面更深。尽管经验研究发现，在过去的50年中，与水有关的合作使冲突不堪重负（参见最近的Wolf等人，2003年），但主流理论未能解释这种现象。为什么即使一个共享流域的国家在其他问题上不合作，为什么也要在水方面进行合作？从任何数量的角度来看，水应该是最冲突的资源，而不是使敌人努力发挥功能和适应性体制安排的灵丹妙药。我们从历史上考察了这些问题，但是，认识到在快速变化的世界中基于历史的指标可能会随着时间的流逝而失去效用，因此我们将重点放在可能看起来与过去不符的未来问题上。与水资源有关的五个关键领域将在未来几年发生巨大变化： 1.正在实施用于协商和管理的新技术，从而改变了两者的面貌。 2.全球化，私有化和世贸组织正在影响我们对水的估价及其在权利和责任方面的地位。 3.全球气候变化可能会改变降水方式，对水资源管理产生重大影响。 4.随着成本在更大范围内变得可行，海水淡化的地缘政治正在发生变化。 5.冲突与合作的性质在范围和规模上都在变化。

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