• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>European simulation and modelling conference >AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF GLOBAL AGENT-BASED MODEL OF MIGRATORY WATERFOWL FOR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
【24h】

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF GLOBAL AGENT-BASED MODEL OF MIGRATORY WATERFOWL FOR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

机译：流行病学分析自动生成全球迁移水禽迁移水禽模型

获取原文
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Seasonal migration of waterfowl, in which avian influenza viruses are enzootic, plays a strong role in the ecology of the disease and has been implicated in several zoonotic epidemics and pandemics. Recent investigations have established that with just 1 mutation current avian influenza viral strains gain the ability to be readily transmitted between humans. These investigations further motivate the need for detailed analysis, in addition to satellite surveillance, of migratory patterns and its influence on the ecology of the disease to aid design and assessment of prophylaxis and containment strategies for emergent epidemics. Accordingly, this paper proposes a novel methodology for generating a global agent-based stochastic epidemiological model involving detailed migratory patterns of waterfowl. The methodology transforms Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data containing global distribution of various species of waterfowl to generate metapopulation for agents that model collocated flocks of birds. Generic migratory flyways are suitably adapted to model migratory flyways for each waterfowl metapopulation. Migratory characteristics of various species are used to determine temporal attributes for the flyways. The resulting data is generated in XML format compatible with our simulation-based epidemiological analysis environment called SEARUMS. Case studies conducted using SEARUMS and the generated models for high-risk waterfowl species indicate good correlation between simulated and observed viral dispersion patterns, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
机译：水禽的季节性迁移，其中禽流感病毒是地方性，起着疾病的生态环境发挥强有力的作用，并在一些人畜共患传染病和流行病有牵连。最近的研究已经证实，只用1个突变目前的禽流感病毒株获得对人与人之间很容易传播的能力。这些研究进一步激励进行详细分析的需要，除了卫星侦察，迁徙模式及其对疾病的生态学援助的设计和预防和遏制战略新兴流行病的评价的影响。因此，本文提出了一种用于生成包括水禽的详述迁移模式的全局基于代理的随机模型流行病学一种新颖的方法。该方法变换地理信息系统（GIS）含水禽不同种类的全球分销产生集合种群代理商该模型搭配鸟群数据。通用洄游飞路被适当地适于迁徙飞行路线为每个集合种群水禽建模。不同种类的洄游特性，用来确定鸟类迁徙时间属性。将得到的数据与我们的基于仿真的流行病学分析环境称为SEARUMS兼容的XML格式生成。使用SEARUMS和高风险水鸟物种生成的模型进行了案例研究表明，良好的相关性模拟和观察病毒的扩散图案，表明所提出的方法的有效性之间。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号