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首页> 外文会议>2011 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics >Survey-based hospital closure estimation using agent-based simulation
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Survey-based hospital closure estimation using agent-based simulation

机译：使用基于代理的模拟进行基于调查的医院关闭估计

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In this paper, we employ an agent-based simulation as a tool to estimate the influence of hospital closure to other hospitals in the neighborhood. In Japan, some hospitals managed by local governments face financial difficulties because of the change of medical fees and the increase in the number of aged patients. Although municipal hospitals greatly contributed to maintain Japanese health care, the role of them in the society is now changing since many private hospitals are installed for the society. Some of municipal hospitals have already been closed due to the financial crisis of the local governments that manage them. The closure or degradation of municipal hospitals can be considered in order to balance the budget of the government, however, the influence of the hospital closure to other hospitals in their neighborhood should be carefully concerned in advance. We have developed decision-making rules of citizens to consult their health condition based on the collected survey data. However, we did not consider the selection of the type of hospitals in our previous simulations. In this paper, we employ the probability of the priority of closeness in the decision-making rule. Simulation results show that encouraging citizens to consult nearest practitioners may reduce the total number of patients after a hospital closure.
机译：在本文中，我们采用基于代理的模拟作为工具来评估医院关闭对附近其他医院的影响。在日本，由于医疗费用的变化和老年患者数量的增加，一些由地方政府管理的医院面临财政困难。尽管市立医院为维持日本的医疗保健做出了巨大贡献，但由于为社会设置了许多私立医院，它们现在在社会中的作用正在发生变化。由于管理这些医院的地方政府的财务危机，一些市政医院已经关闭。为了平衡政府的预算，可以考虑关闭或降低市政医院的规模，但是，应该事先仔细考虑医院关闭对附近其他医院的影响。我们根据收集的调查数据制定了公民的决策规则，以咨询他们的健康状况。但是，我们在先前的模拟中并未考虑选择医院的类型。在本文中，我们在决策规则中采用了接近优先级的概率。模拟结果表明，鼓励公民咨询就近的执业医师可能会减少医院关闭后的患者总数。

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