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State Transition ANNs For Hourly Wind Speed Forecasting

机译:用于每小时风速预测的国家过渡ANN

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Accurate wind speed prediction is vital for improving the efficiency and reliability of wind power system operation. In this paper, a novel structure of forecasting method, the State Transition ANN model (T-ANN), is proposed for hourly wind speed forecasting. In the proposed method, the 'state' is determined to describe the characteristic of the wind speed time series. Mapping relationship between two states is modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in the proposed method. Real world wind speed dataset is adopted to evaluate the proposed T-ANN wind speed forecasting model. Forecasting results show that the proposed T-ANN model outperforms the traditional regression ANN model (R-ANN) and the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model in 1 to 3 step wind speed forecasting.
机译:精确的风速预测对于提高风电系统操作的效率和可靠性至关重要。本文提出了一种预测方法的新结构,状态转换Ann模型(T-ANN),用于每小时风速预测。在所提出的方法中,确定“状态”描述风速时间序列的特征。在所提出的方法中使用人工神经网络(ANN)建模两个状态之间的映射关系。采用现实世界风速数据集来评估所提出的T-ANN风速预测模型。预测结果表明,所提出的T-ANN模型优于传统的回归ANN模型(R-ANN)和1至3步风速预测中的支持向量回归(SVR)模型。

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