Most urban centers in India are prone to earthquakes and hence the assessment of seismic hazard and its secondary effects play a major role in mitigating the hazard for these cities. In India, the sub-standard quality of buildings and inadequate assessment of hazard pose a major risk in hazard mitigation. One of the best ways to tackle this issue is to identify seismic vulnerable regions in the country and take adequate measures for hazard mitigation. This paper addresses the issue of identifying the liquefaction susceptible areas in Mumbai city based on a probabilistic method. Mumbai, being a coastal city and situated on a deep soft soil deposit, the level of saturation and the soil conditions can worsen the seismic effects. The method adopted in this study uses an end-to-end probabilistic approach both for seismic hazard modeling and liquefaction potential evaluation. The use of probabilistic methods in liquefaction potential evaluation will help in quantifying the uncertainties involved in seismic hazard and soil parameters. The liquefaction return period curve and the factor of safety against liquefaction at various locations in Mumbai along with maps showing spatial variation of factor of safety against liquefaction are developed in the study.
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