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Physical and infrastructure modeling for the 2015 PDC asteroid threat exercise

机译：2015年PDC小行星威胁演习的物理和基础设施建模

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The 2015 Planetary Defense Conference (2015 PDC) was held in Frascati, Italy on April 13¿¿¿17 by the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA). In addition to customary technical sessions, we performed the first week-long threat exercise designed to simulate and examine the process of decision making that would accompany the discovery and response to an asteroid on a collision course with Earth. Our role in the exercise was to develop and present a plausible scenario that would be of interest to as many participants as possible while considering the broad diversity in technical expertise, approach, values, missions, and national affiliations of the conference attendees. Moreover, we strove to present a reasonable sequence of events spanning several years that would provide many opportunities for collective decision making under uncertainty by parties likely to have conflicting interests. In order to hold the attention of the participants throughout the week we tried to create a scenario that would be as dramatic as possible ¿¿¿ including ¿¿¿cliffhangers¿¿¿ and unexpected turns of events ¿¿¿ but without sacrificing realism. This allowed us to discuss a wide range of potential responses, including kinetic and nuclear deflection, and potential outcomes, including tsunami-forming ocean impacts, crater-forming land impacts, and airbursts by objects over a large size range. In addition to creating the scenario, members of our team served on an expert panel in a role-playing exercise that included participants acting as world leaders of nations, both directly and indirectly affected members of the public in at-risk areas, and the media. This paper summarizes the exercise, focusing on physical and infrastructure modeling. The exercise spanned the entire week, with daily ¿¿¿injects¿¿¿ (or updates) of new observed data about what was currently known on the imaginary date. We presented models of potential physical effects and resulting infrastructure damage, with emphasis on the uncertai- ties. Seven updates spanned most of the time between when the asteroid (dubbed ¿¿¿2015 PDC¿¿¿) was discovered on April 13, 2015, and its impact date of September 3, 2022. Information about the orbit and technical response options were presented as a set of faux press releases that were made available to participants prior to each briefing. The scenario was based on an actual calculated orbit to provide as much realism as possible. The physical effects at each stage were predicted by using simulations for airburst and tsunami generation, and a shallow water model for tsunami propagation. Maps were generated using tools developed for the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), and were presented by expert panelists as part of a mock press briefing at each inject. We present the contents of those press briefings and put them into context with the threat exercise.
机译：2015年行星防御会议（2015 PDC）由国际宇航科学院（IAA）于4月13日在意大利弗拉斯卡蒂举行。除了常规的技术会议外，我们还进行了为期一周的首次威胁演习，目的是模拟和检查与小行星碰撞过程中对小行星的发现和响应所伴随的决策过程。我们在这项工作中的作用是制定并提出一个可行的方案，使尽可能多的参与者感兴趣，同时考虑会议参与者的技术专长，方法，价值，使命和国家附属机构的广泛差异。此外，我们力图提出一个合理的事件序列，跨度数年，这将为利益冲突的各方在不确定性下的集体决策提供许多机会。为了在整个星期内引起参与者的注意，我们尝试创建一个尽可能戏剧化的场景，其中包括¿¿¿cliffhangers¿¿这使我们能够讨论各种潜在的应对措施，包括动能和核变形，以及潜在的结果，包括形成海啸的海洋影响，形成火山口的土地影响以及大范围物体的空袭。除了创建场景外，我们的团队成员还参加了角色扮演活动的专家小组，参与者包括作为世界各国领导人的参与者，处于危险区域的直接或间接受影响的公众以及媒体。本文总结了练习，重点是物理和基础架构建模。演习持续了整整一周的时间，每天都在“虚拟”上注入（或更新）有关假想日期当前已知的新观测数据。我们提出了潜在的物理影响和基础设施破坏的模型，重点是不确定性。从2015年4月13日发现小行星（称为“¿¿¿PDC 2015”）到其影响日期为2022年9月3日的大部分时间，共进行了七次更新。其中介绍了有关轨道和技术响应选项的信息。作为在每次简报之前向参与者提供的一组虚假新闻稿。该场景基于实际计算出的轨道，以提供尽可能多的真实感。通过使用爆炸和海啸产生的模拟以及海啸传播的浅水模型，可以预测每个阶段的物理影响。地图是使用为国家基础设施模拟和分析中心（NISAC）开发的工具生成的，并由专家小组成员在每次注射时作为模拟新闻发布会的一部分进行介绍。我们介绍了这些新闻简报的内容，并在威胁演习中将其置于上下文中。

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