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Influencing Factors on Beijing Real Estate Price

机译:北京房地产价格的影响因素

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摘要

In recent years, Beijing real estate price increase continually. The government has introduced a number of policies to curb real estate prices, but the prices stay high. Monthly data such as per capita GDP were handled through co-integrating, Granger causality test and other methods to analyze influencing factors on Beijing real estate price alteration from Mar 2010 to Sep 2016. Results indicated that there is a uni-direction causality between real estate price and per capita GDP, and GDP is the factor driving changes in real estate price; real estate investment and per capita disposable income can promote real estate prices, but the effect is relatively weak. We can conclude that Beijing real estate market was in non-equilibrium conditions. So, proper macro-controlling policies were needed to make assure the real estate industry in exuberance.
机译:近年来,北京房地产价格持续上涨。政府出台了一些抑制房地产价格的政策,但价格居高不下。通过协整,格兰杰因果关系检验等方法对2010年3月至2016年9月北京房地产价格变化的影响因素进行了人均GDP等月度数据分析。结果表明,房地产之间存在单向因果关系。价格和人均GDP,而GDP是驱动房地产价格变化的因素;房地产投资和人均可支配收入可以促进房地产价格上涨,但效果相对较弱。我们可以得出结论,北京房地产市场处于非均衡状态。因此,需要采取适当的宏观调控政策,以确保房地产业繁荣发展。

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