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The CENKI space economic simulator: Demonstrating agent-based modeling on satellite market data

机译：CENKI空间经济模拟器：演示基于代理的卫星市场数据建模

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Expanding investments into space ventures are encouraging a diverse range of opportunities, from in-space manufacturing to missions to Mars. The growing diversity and complex economic interdependencies introduce uncertainty into market and investment projections. The availability of up-to-date market data and market simulation tools are critical to understanding the risks and rewards of a commercial space endeavor. The current study addresses the need for market simulation tools and applies a newly-developed agent-based modeling tool to explore new markets for in-space products and services, evaluate sensitivities to emerging technologies and regulatory policies, and spur investment into future space operations. This study demonstrates the modeling and predictive capability of the agent-based approach to capture sales and acquisition behaviors in historical telecommunications satellite provider data. Particular attention is paid to the role of incorporating model uncertainty, both from insufficient data as well as probabilistic biases, to understanding operational decisions on spending allocation and scheduling. Market competition associated to the SES framework represents a method for simulating the natural evolution of a complex financial system made of many independent models of differing character. In order to explore future topics of space economic development and policy, this framework must be vetted as capable of producing intuitive market dynamics. To do so, a Study has been created including five peripheral Players supplying a single focal Player who is considering the near term trajectory in the communication satellite industry. This Study acts to both verify the function of the SES as well as explore the uncertainty in making predictions based on the available market data used and the interrelationships simulated. The SES is validated by predicting revenue generation for a company from 2006-2009 using empirical models up to 2005 and comparing the results to historical data. Furthermore, results of various merger and non-merger scenarios are compared and the real merger cost of a company acquisition is explained using discounted profits in the merger year of 2005.
机译：扩大对太空企业的投资正在鼓励各种机会，从太空制造到飞行任务到火星。日益增长的多样性和复杂的经济依存关系将不确定性引入了市场和投资预测。最新的市场数据和市场模拟工具的可用性对于了解商业空间项目的风险和回报至关重要。当前的研究满足了对市场仿真工具的需求，并应用了新开发的基于代理的建模工具来探索太空产品和服务的新市场，评估对新兴技术和监管政策的敏感性，并刺激对未来太空运营的投资。这项研究证明了基于代理的方法的建模和预测能力，可以捕获历史电信卫星提供商数据中的销售和获取行为。从数据不足和概率偏差到了解支出分配和计划的运营决策，尤其要注意纳入模型不确定性的作用。与SES框架相关的市场竞争代表了一种模拟由许多具有不同特征的独立模型组成的复杂金融系统的自然演化的方法。为了探索太空经济发展和政策的未来主题，必须对该框架进行审查，使其能够产生直观的市场动态。为此，已经创建了一个研究报告，其中包括五个外围参与者，它们提供了一个正在研究通信卫星行业近期轨迹的单一焦点参与者。这项研究旨在验证SES的功能，并根据所使用的可用市场数据和模拟的相互关系探索进行预测时的不确定性。通过使用直到2005年的经验模型来预测2006-2009年一家公司的收入来验证SES，并将结果与​​历史数据进行比较。此外，比较了各种合并和非合并方案的结果，并使用2005合并年度的折现利润解释了公司收购的实际合并成本。

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