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首页> 外文会议>Joint annual meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science and the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology >A National Study of the Mortality Effects of PM2.5 on All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in the Contiguous U.S.
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A National Study of the Mortality Effects of PM2.5 on All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in the Contiguous U.S.

机译：一项全国性研究，研究了PM2.5对美国连续性全因和特定原因死亡率的死亡率影响。

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Background The adverse health effects of air pollution are established at the individual level, and at the population level in major metropolitan areas. However, the effect on all-cause and cause-specific mortality for the entire country has not been directly evaluated. We investigate the effects of air pollution on mortality for the entire population in the contiguous USA. Methods We used number of deaths for 1999-2011 from the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Corresponding age-sex-specific population counts were from the US Census Bureau and the NCHS. Annual mean PM2.5 concentrations were estimated by incorporating remotely-sensed and in-situ observations into a land-use regression model. We applied a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to age-sex-county-specific death rates, to estimate the effects of county annual mean PM2.5 concentration on all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality. The model was formulated to empirically smooth death rates over age and county of residence. We adjusted for poverty, race, income and lung-cancer mortality as a proxy for smoking. Results In unadjusted analysis, all-cause death rates increased by 4.4% (95%CI 3.9-4.9%) for males and 2.5% (95%CI 2.0-3.0%) for females, per 10pgm-3 higher PM2.5. Age-specific rate ratios smoothly varied with age, with rate ratios highest in males aged 60-64 years and females 65-69 years. Cardiopulmonary death rates increased by 2.2% (95%CI 1.1 to 3.1%) for males and 0.5% (95%CI -0.4 to 1.4%) for females (all confounders and education). Age-specific proportional effects were largest for males aged 45-49 and females 50-54 per 10ugm-3 higher PM2.5. Conclusion In this first direct population-level study for an entire country we found that air pollution increases the risk of deaths from major cause of death.
机译：背景技术空气污染对健康的不利影响在个人和主要大城市的人口中都得到了证实。但是，尚未直接评估整个国家对全因病因和特定病因死亡率的影响。我们调查了连续空气污染对美国整个人口死亡率的影响。方法我们使用了美国国家卫生统计中心（NCHS）1999-2011年的死亡人数。相应的按年龄性别分类的人口计数来自美国人口普查局和NCHS。年平均PM2.5浓度是通过将遥感和原地观测纳入土地利用回归模型来估算的。我们将贝叶斯时空模型应用于特定年龄性别县的死亡率，以评估县年平均PM2.5浓度对全因和心肺死亡率的影响。建立该模型的目的是根据经验平滑居住年龄和居住县的死亡率。我们对贫困，种族，收入和肺癌死亡率进行了调整，以替代吸烟。结果在未经调整的分析中，每增加10pgm-3的PM2.5，男性的全因死亡率增加4.4％（95％CI 3.9-4.9％），女性增加2.5％（95％CI 2.0-3.0％）。特定年龄的比率比率随年龄而平滑变化，其中比率比率最高的是60-64岁的男性和65-69岁的女性。男性的心肺死亡率增加了2.2％（95％CI从1.1到3.1％），女性增加了0.5％（95％CI -0.4到1.4％）（所有混杂因素和受过教育）。每10ugm-3 PM2.5升高，年龄特定的比例效应最大的是45-49岁的男性和50-54岁的女性。结论在针对整个国家的第一项直接人口水平研究中，我们发现空气污染会增加由主要死亡原因造成的死亡风险。

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