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Risk Prediction and Optimization of Electricity Retail Market Based on Risk Factors of Electricity Retail Companies

机译：基于电力零售公司风险因素的电力零售市场风险预测与优化

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摘要

With deregulation of electrical market in the China, the electricity retail companies (ERCs) and the electricity retail market (ERM) experiences fast development in the recent years. Different from the generation and transmission market, the retail market is more open to the participators, and has more competition and higher risk. Considering the risk factors e.g. the business scale, the capital, the employee, and the complaints, an optimization model to reduce the risk of the ERCs and ERM with higher predicted risk is newly proposed in this paper, where the risk factors are normalized by the threshold value and the time before quantifying the risk. The risk optimization problem with constraints to adjustable risk factors is nonlinear and solved by the interior point method. The numerical results validate the optimization effect on the risk of the ERCs and the ERM.
机译：凭借对中国电力市场的放松管制，电力零售公司（ERC）和电力零售市场（ERM）近年来经历快速发展。不同于代和传输市场，零售市场对参与者更开放，竞争更多，风险更高。考虑到风险因素。在本文中新提出了将业务规模，资本，员工和投诉，以降低ERC和ERM的风险，以降低ERC和ERM的风险，并在本文中进行了更高的预测风险，其中危险因素被阈值和时间标准化在量化风险之前。对可调节风险因素的限制的风险优化问题是非线性的，由内部点法解决。数值结果验证了对ERC和ERM的风险的优化影响。

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