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Estimate of Long-Term Water Availability for a Reservoir in Texas Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method with Paleo Drought and Trend Consideration

机译：探讨德克萨斯州水库的长期水资源可用性，利用与古干旱和趋势考虑的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法估算

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How much water supply can come from a reservoir in Texas in 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, and 2080? This is a key question that must be answered in the water planning process in Texas. Current regional water planning rules require regional water planning groups (RWPGs) to use reservoir firm yield, which is the maximum annual diversion from a reservoir at 100% reliability during a repeat of the drought-of-record. Firm yield is traditionally simulated using the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) water availability model (WAM) Run 3 as an estimate of future water availability, while also considering the effect of future sedimentation within a reservoir. However, most of the TCEQ WAMs use hydrologic input extending from the 1940s to the 1990s, with only a few basins having records extended to recent years. Therefore, there is a need for longer simulations that can cover a range of possible hydrologic scenarios. In this study, we analyze long-term firm yield for Lake Meredith located in the Canadian River Basin. Using a reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data set (extending from 1400 to 2003), we assessed critical drought periods and selected a 14-year drought (with a 600-year recurrence interval) as a potential new benchmark drought for the Lake Meredith watershed. We applied Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate a synthetic hydrologic data set (10,000 series) for the future period (from 2019 through 2080) using lag-1 annual drought transitional probabilities generated from, and incorporating the long-term trend in, the naturalized flows upstream of Lake Meredith for the period 1940 through 2018. Net annual reservoir evaporation that corresponds to the annual naturalized flow, projected reservoir capacity, and volume-area rating curves for each planning decade are input to the TCEQ's Canadian River Basin WAM to simulate 10,000 series of future reservoir firm yield for each decade. Based on the 14-year benchmark drought-of-record, and a 90% exceedance probability, we find that future water availability from Lake Meredith decreases over the planning decades, with about 15 million cubic meters per year in 2030 reducing to about 0.9 million cubic meters per year in 2080. These results indicate an increase in drought risk exposure for the Lake Meredith watershed, given the occurrence of a drought worse than the observed 2010s drought-of-record. The findings could inform a water supply risk tolerance assessment by local water user groups and water planners in the Canadian River Basin.
机译：2030,2040,2050,2060,2080和2080年德克萨斯州德克萨斯州的水库可以获得多少水量？这是必须在德克萨斯州水规划过程中回答的关键问题。目前的区域水平规则要求区域水规划群体（RWPG）使用水库坚定的产量，这是在储干干旱期间在100％可靠性时从储层的最高年度转接。使用德克萨斯州的环境质量（TCEQ）水可用性模型（WAM）运行3作为未来水资源可用性的估计，传统上模拟了坚实的产量，同时考虑了水库内未来沉降的影响。然而，大多数TCEQ WAMS使用从20世纪40年代延伸到20世纪90年代的水文输入，只有几个盆地延伸到近年来的记录。因此，需要更长的模拟，可以涵盖一系列可能的水文场景。在这项研究中，我们分析了位于加拿大河流域的梅雷迪特湖的长期坚定屈服。使用重建的Palmer干旱严重性指数（PDSI）数据集（从1400到2003年延伸），我们评估了危急的干旱期，并选择了一个14年的干旱（具有600年的复发间隔）作为湖泊的潜在新的基准干旱梅雷迪思流域。我们应用Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC）方法为未来时期（2019年至2080年从2019年至2080年）产生了合成水文数据集（10,000系列），使用从中产生的LAG-1年度干旱过渡性概率，并纳入长期趋势，1940年至2018年期间的湖泊梅泰丘斯上游的归化流量。净年度储层蒸发对应于每年规划十年的年度归化流动，预计的储层能力和体积区评级曲线，是TCEQ的加拿大河流域旺为每年模拟10,000系列未来的水库公司产量。基于14年的基准干旱的历史记录，90％的概率，我们发现，梅雷迪斯湖的未来水可用性在规划数十年中减少，2030年每年约1500万立方米，减少约90万2080年的立方米每年。这些结果表明，据了比观察到的2010年干旱的干旱更糟糕的干旱发生，这结果表明梅雷迪思流域的干旱风险暴露的增加。这些调查结果可以通过加拿大河流域的当地水用户群和水规划师提供供水风险耐受评估。

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