Short-term traffic flow time series forecasting based on grey interval forecasts method

机译：短期交通流量时间序列基于灰度间隔预测法

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Based on the randomness and uncertainty of short-term traffic volume time series, a grey interval forecasts method combined with threshold value analysis and interpolation analysis is put forward, aim to solve the interval grey model for coping with limited and secondary interval data. According to the stepwise ratio, lots of discussions have been made on threshold value analysis. And then, the upper envelope and the lower envelope are surveyed and marked off under distribution law of traffic data. After that, the grouped-data are used for interpolation analysis. In the end, GM(1,1) model is established to simulate the sequence, through which the range of predicted values are obtained. The New Information Principle in Grey System Theory ensures that this interval forecast method has a good anti-interference ability and fault tolerance, experiments show the interval forecast method has high accuracy.

机译：基于短期交通量序列的随机性和不确定性，提出了一种灰度间隔方法，与阈值分析和插值分析相结合，旨在解决与有限的次要间隔数据应对的间隔灰度模型。根据逐步比率，已经对阈值分析进行了大量讨论。然后，在交通数据的分配规律下调查和标记上方包络和下部信封。之后，分组数据用于插值分析。在最后，建立了GM（1,1）模型以模拟序列，通过该序列获得预测值的范围。灰色系统理论中的新信息原理确保了该间隔预测方法具有良好的抗干扰能力和容错能力，实验表明间隔预测方法具有高精度。

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《International Conference on Educational and Information Technology》|2010年||共6页
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作者
Li Xingyi; Zhang Xinghua; Shi Hua Ji;
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中图分类 G43-53;
关键词
GM(1,1)model Introduction; Interval forecasts; interpolation analysis; short-term traffic volume forecasts; stepwise ratio; threshold value analysis;

机译：GM（1,1）模型介绍;间隔预测;插值分析;短期交通量预测;逐步比例;阈值分析;

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4. Short-term traffic flow time series forecasting based on grey interval forecasts method [C] . Li Xingyi, Zhang Xinghua, Shi Hua Ji Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Educational and Information Technology . 2010

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Short-term traffic flow time series forecasting based on grey interval forecasts method

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