Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Complex Risks: Using SD to Explore Futures of Lyme Disease in the Netherlands

机译：开发不确定复杂风险的场景：使用SD探讨荷兰莱姆病的期货

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Lyme disease due to infection with Lyme borreliosis poses an uncertain dynamic threat to the Dutch and their public health system. This risk was used to develop and illustrate two variants of a National Risk Assessment approaches for slumbering/latent risks. This paper explains and illustrates the System Dynamics-based variant using the societal risk posed by Lyme disease. Thousands of plausible evolutions of lyme disease are generated using a System Dynamics model in order to assess the societal risk posed by Lyme disease. The risk is scored in the Dutch National Risk Assessment framework adapted to deeply uncertain dynamically complex risks, and mapped in a new type of risk diagram developed for uncertain complex risks in order to compare the risk posed by Lyme disease to other plausible risks. Finally, scenario discovery techniques are used to identify a small set of representative scenarios that could be used in a capability analysis.

机译：由于莱姆氏肝素感染引起的莱姆病为荷兰语及其公共卫生系统带来了不确定的动态威胁。这种风险用于开发和说明国家风险评估方法的两种变体，用于沉睡/潜伏风险。本文解释并说明了使用莱姆病引起的社会风险的基于系统动态的变体。使用系统动力学模型产生成千上万的莱姆病演变，以评估莱姆病引起的社会风险。荷兰国家风险评估框架的风险适于对动态复杂的风险进行深度，并以一种为不确定的复杂风险开发的新型风险图表，以比较莱姆病引起的风险到其他合理的风险。最后，场景发现技术用于标识可以在能力分析中使用的一小组代表性场景。

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《International Conference of the System Dynamics Society》|2012年||共21页
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Erik Pruyt; Jeroen Coumouy;
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中图分类 N941.3-53;
关键词
Slumbering scenarios; System Dynamics; ESDMA; NRA; Lyme Disease;

机译：沉睡的情景;系统动态;esdma;nra;莱姆病;

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4. Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Complex Risks: Using SD to Explore Futures of Lyme Disease in the Netherlands [C] . Erik Pruyt, Jeroen Coumouy International Conference of the System Dynamics Society . 2012

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Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Complex Risks: Using SD to Explore Futures of Lyme Disease in the Netherlands

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