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Exploring the Dynamics of an Energy Service Venture for Energy Efficiency Policy

机译：探索能源效率政策能源型企业的动态

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摘要

The development of a commercially viable and competitive market for energy performance contracting (EPC) services provided by energy service companies (ESCO) may contribute to realizing energy savings potential. In many countries, however, like Portugal, this market is still underdeveloped, far from its promised potential. This study provides new insight into this issue, focusing on how to develop a sustainable EPC industry from an energy service venture perspective. A system dynamics model representing an ESCO venture in the Portuguese market was created. The model simulation provides a helpful basis for accelerating learning regarding the policies and managerial processes that are critical for the success of the venture. The simulation of the base case produces an overall insignificant market value added and a low probability of success, mainly due to long sales cycles. The model is sensitive to the word-of-mouth (WOM) parameter, however, which suggests that effective policy interventions should consider initiatives that accelerate WOM among EPC adopters and prospects. Additionally, the model simulations indicate an efficient combination of incentive policies such as low interest rate, demonstration projects, and WOM initiatives as they significantly reduce the probability of failed ESCO ventures and consequently increase the widespread adoption of EPC.
机译：开发能源服务公司（ESCO）提供的商业绩效合同（EPC）服务的商业良好和竞争性市场可能有助于实现节能潜力。然而，在许多国家，就像葡萄牙一样，这个市场仍未发育，远非其所承诺的潜力。本研究为此问题提供了新的洞察力，重点是如何从能源服务风险角度开发可持续的EPC产业。创建了代表葡萄牙市场中ESCO Venture的系统动态模型。模型仿真为加速学习提供了有关对福利成功至关重要的政策和管理流程的有用基础。基本案例的仿真产生了整体微不足道的市场增值，并且成功的概率低，主要是由于销售周期长。然而，该模型对口碑（WOW）参数敏感，这表明有效的政策干预措施应考虑加速EPC采用者和前景中加速WOM的举措。此外，模型模拟表明，诸如低利率，示范项目和WOM举措的激励政策的有效组合，因为它们显着降低了ESCO Ventures失败的可能性，从而增加了EPC的广泛采用。

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