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首页> 外文会议>International Conference of the System Dynamics Society >MODELING ISIL: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF A MODERN TERRORIST NETWORK
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MODELING ISIL: UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF A MODERN TERRORIST NETWORK

机译：造型ISIL：了解现代恐怖网络的动态

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The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) grew out of the insurgency in Iraq and flourished in the vacuum left after the civil war in Syria and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. Its support among Sunni Arabs sprang from their distrust of the Shia government in Iraq and the persecution of Sunni Iraqis after the U.S. withdrawal. Their violent tactics are widely televised as the conduct executions almost every day that become more and more brutal. Although they display the behavior and structure of a traditional insurgency, they also show characteristics of an emerging state actor, and have demonstrated their global reach through acts of violence across the globe. Additionally, their cyber presence on the web and social media enable them to reach thousands of disenfranchised Muslims across the global and potentially inspire acts of violence by ISIL followers. This paper reviews the relevant literature and presents a causal loop diagram to model the dynamic behavior behind ISIL's rise and continued support across the globe. It goes on to examine the potential impacts of several policy options to combat ISIL through the use of these causal loop diagrams.
机译：伊拉克伊斯兰教州和利尔（ISIL）在伊拉克的叛乱中发展出来，在叙利亚的内战后留下的真空繁殖，并从伊拉克撤出了美国部队。它在逊尼派阿拉伯人之间的支持从他们对伊拉克的什叶派政府的不信任以及美国撤回后森林伊拉克人的迫害。他们的暴力策略被广泛传播，因为越来越多的野蛮的行为执行。虽然他们展示了传统叛乱的行为和结构，但它们还表明了新兴国家演员的特征，并通过全球暴力行为展示了他们的全球范围。此外，他们在网络和社交媒体上的网络存在使他们能够跨越全球的数千名剥夺穆斯林，并可能激发ISIL追随者的暴力行为。本文审查了相关文献，并提出了一种因果循环图，以模拟ISIL崛起和全球持续支持的动态行为。通过使用这些因果环图，研究了几个策略选项对isile的潜在影响。

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