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An Analysis of Population Polices in China

机译:中国人口政策分析

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This paper examines the impact of various population policies in China, in particular, how to increase the fertility rate and reduce the age dependency ratio. The investigation carried out involved the identification of relevant factors, the establishment of causal relationships between factors and the building of a causal loop diagram, and subsequent conversion into a stock and flow diagram for running simulations. Data collected were from newspapers, published reports, and official government websites. The results obtained from the simulations revealed that the newly implemented two-child policy would most likely be ineffective in alleviating the issue of ageing population in China. Sensitivity analysis carried out to identify potential points of intervention revealed two possible measures. Both measures were shown to be effective in increasing the Actual Fertility Rate, and also in slowing down the increase in Aged Dependency Ratio. Hence, it is recommended that the Chinese government introduce alternative measures, such as giving cash bonus to families that give birth to a second child, or implementing policies that reduce the cost of healthcare services, in order to ensure that its population is productive, and continues to be so in the future.
机译:本文介绍了各种人口政策在中国的影响,特别是如何增加生育率并降低年龄依赖率。调查涉及识别相关因素,建立因子之间的因果关系和因果环图之间的因果关系,以及随后转换成运行模拟的股票和流程图。收集的数据来自报纸,公布的报告和官方政府网站。从模拟中获得的结果透露,新实施的双子政策很可能无法减轻中国人口衰老问题。识别潜在干预点的敏感性分析显示出两项可能的措施。两种措施都被证明是有效地增加实际的生育率,以及减缓年龄依赖比的增加。因此,建议中国政府提出替代措施,例如向生育第二个儿童的家庭提供现金奖金,或者执行降低医疗保健服务费用的政策,以确保其人口富有成效,继续如此未来。

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