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首页> 外文会议>International Conference of the System Dynamics Society >System Dynamics Modeling of Health Workforce Planning to Address Future Challenges of Thailand's Universal Health Coverage: A paper submitted to the 38th International Conference of the System Dynamic Society (Bergen, Norway, July 2020)
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System Dynamics Modeling of Health Workforce Planning to Address Future Challenges of Thailand's Universal Health Coverage: A paper submitted to the 38th International Conference of the System Dynamic Society (Bergen, Norway, July 2020)

机译：系统动力学建模卫生劳动力计划解决泰国普遍健康保险的未来挑战：提交于第38届系统动态社会国际会议（挪威，挪威，挪威7月2020年7月）的论文

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摘要

System dynamics modeling can inform policy decisions of healthcare reforms under Thailand's Universal Health Coverage. We report on this thinking approach to Thailand's strategic health workforce planning for the next 20 years. A series of group model building sessions involving 110 participants from multi-sectors of Thailand's health systems was conducted in 2017 and 2018. Policymakers, healthcare administrators, and practitioners were facilitated to co-create a causal loop diagram that represents a shared understanding of why the demands and supplies of the health workforce in Thailand can be mismatched and a stock and flow diagrams for testing the consequences of policy options. Our model found hospital utilizations created a vicious cycle of constantly increasing demands for hospital care, and hence a constant shortage of healthcare providers. Moreover, hospital care was not designed for effectively dealing with the future demands of aging populations and prevalent chronic illness. Hence, shifting emphasis to professions that can provide primary care, intermediate care, long-term care, palliative care, and end-of-life care can be more effective. Our simulation modeling confirmed that shifting the care models to address the changing health demands can be a high-leverage policy of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term.
机译：系统动力学建模可以在泰国的全民医疗保险告知医疗卫生改革的政策决定。我们在这一思想的方法来泰国的战略卫生人力资源规划为未来20年的报告。一系列涉及来自泰国的卫生系统多部门110名参与者组模型建立的会话是在2017年和2018年政策制定者，卫生保健系统管理员进行，从业者提供了便利，共同创建一个代表达成共识的，为什么一个环路图需求和卫生人力的供应在泰国可以不匹配以及股票和流程图用于测试的政策选择的后果。我们的模型发现医院的利用率产生的对医院服务不断增长的需求，形成恶性循环，因此，医疗服务提供者的不断短缺。此外，医院护理不被设计为与人口老龄化和普遍的慢性疾病的未来需求有效地处理。因此，移强调职业，可以提供初级保健，中间护理，长期护理，姑息治疗，和最终的生活护理可以更有效。我们的模拟模型证实，移位的护理模式，以解决不断变化的卫生要求，可卫生人力规划的高杠杆率的政策，但很难在短期内实现。

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