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首页> 外文会议>International symposium on spatial accuracy assessment in natural resources and environmental science >Uncertainty Assessment in Modelling Cadmium and Zinc Accumulation in Agricultural Soils
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Uncertainty Assessment in Modelling Cadmium and Zinc Accumulation in Agricultural Soils

机译：农业土壤中镉和锌积累的不确定性评估

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摘要

The sustainability of current land use in agro-ecosystems can be assessed with respect to heavy-metal accumulation in soil by balancing their input and output fluxes. Even small heavy-metal accumulation rate in soils may lead to a violation of soil quality standards in the future. To undertake suitable preventive measures against heavy-metal enrichment in soil, estimated input and output fluxes need to be reliable. For this task we developed an empirical stochastic model that considers heavy-metal inputs by agricultural management as well as outputs, such as crop removal and leaching. In order to quantify the uncertainty in model output, we propagated the uncertainty in model parameter using a Latin Hypercube sampling strategy. In this paper we present the regional cadmium and zinc balances for the test region Sundgau, Switzerland, and the contribution of uncertain input parameters to the total variation of the net heavy-metal fluxes as determined by uncertainty analyses.
机译：通过平衡其输入和输出通量，可以通过平衡土壤中的重金属积累来评估当前土地使用的可持续性。即使是土壤中的小重金属累积率也可能导致未来违反土壤质量标准。要采取适当的防治土壤重金属富集的预防措施，估计的投入和产出助量需要可靠。对于此任务，我们开发了一个经验随机模型，通过农业管理以及产量，例如作物去除和浸出。为了量化模型输出中的不确定性，我们使用拉丁超立方体采样策略在模型参数中传播不确定性。本文介绍了Sundgau，瑞士的测试区区域镉和锌余额，以及不确定的输入参数对通过不确定性分析确定的净重金属助熔剂的总变化的贡献。

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