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An estimation of economic effects of tele-home-care: hospital cost-savings of the elderly.

机译：估算远程家庭护理经济影响：老年人的医院成本节约。

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Tele-home-care (or tele-medicine) is being implemented by the application of multimedia such as CATV and ISDN. In this paper, by focusing on the so-called "social hospitalization of the aged," we carry out an estimation of the extent to which tele-home-care based on multimedia can help in saving the cost of hospitalization of the aged in the future. Estimation consists of the following two parts. First, we estimate the trends of the aged population and their hospital expenses using the regression analysis. Second, we assume that new technology such as multimedia and new medical instruments develop according to a logistic curve. Thus, we estimate the rate of diffusion of CATV and ISDN by logistic curves. Then, by multiplying this number by hospital costs per elderly patient as estimated previously, we have been able to calculate the extent to which hospitalization costs can be saved in the entire economy. Our results indicated that in the year 2050, USDollars 257.3 billion, or nearly 7.4% of total hospitalization costs of the aged could be saved by tele-home-care.
机译：通过诸如CATV和ISDN等多媒体的应用来实施远程家庭护理（或电信医学）。在本文中，通过专注于所谓的“社会住院，”我们开展了基于多媒体的远程家庭护理程度的估计，可以帮助节省老年人住院的成本未来。估计由以下两部分组成。首先，我们使用回归分析估计年龄人口及其医院费用的趋势。其次，我们假设多媒体和新医疗仪器等新技术根据物流曲线开发。因此，我们通过物流曲线估计了CATV和ISDN的扩散速率。然后，通过以前估计每名老年患者的医院成本将该号码乘以，我们已经能够计算住院费用可以在整个经济中挽救的程度。我们的结果表明，在2050年，USOLOLLARS 257.3亿美元，或者占老年人住院费用的近7.4％，可以通过远程家庭保养来节省。

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