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首页> 外文会议>IFAC Symposium on Information Control Problems in Manufacturing >WHY DO COMPANIES NOT PRODUCE BETTER FORECASTS OVERTIME? AN ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING APPROACH
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WHY DO COMPANIES NOT PRODUCE BETTER FORECASTS OVERTIME? AN ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING APPROACH

机译：为什么公司不会产生更好的预测加班？组织学习方法

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摘要

This paper considers the forecasting practice of a U.K. branch of a major international pharmaceutical company. The company uses a Forecasting Support System to prepare system forecasts, which are later 'judgmentally' adjusted to produce a set of final forecasts. Although it is anticipated that as the company gains experience and becomes familiar with its product, its ability to forecast at the stock keeping unit level will improve, an analysis of forecasts for 136 products over a 24-month period shows that this is not the case. This present study speculates as to the possible reasons behind what is ostensibly a failure to learn and draws on key concepts from organisational learning in an attempt to explain what may be happening.
机译：本文考虑了一家主要国际制药公司的U.K.分支机构的预测实践。该公司采用预测支持系统来准备系统预测，后来“判断”调整以产生一系列最终预测。虽然预计随着公司获得经验并熟悉其产品，但其在股票保持单位级别预测的能力将有所改善，在24个月期间对136种产品的预测分析表明这不是这种情况。本研究推出了对从组织学习中的关键概念进行了外面的可能原因，以便解释可能发生的事情。

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