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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies >MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE AND POPULATION GROWTH ON GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR IN THE TORONTO-NIAGRA REGION, CANADA
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MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE AND POPULATION GROWTH ON GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR IN THE TORONTO-NIAGRA REGION, CANADA

机译：加拿大多伦多地区能源部门的气候变化和人口增长对温室气候变化和人口增长

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摘要

Climate change will affect the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by affecting energy consumption. Population growth, on the other hand, will increase GHG emissions in the absence of new technologies or an emissions reduction policy. This study uses the MARKAL model to evaluate the impacts on energy demand and the associated GHG emissions caused by variations of temperature and population in the Toronto-Niagara Region (TNR) from 1998 to 2032. One Business as Usual (BAU) case and three scenarios are developed and analyzed. The BAU case models the energy system and GHG emissions based on extrapolations from the current level of social and economic development. The first scenario reflects variations of GHG emissions level in response to a mean temperature change. Scenario 2 incorporates population growth into scenario 1. Scenario 3 combines population growth with changes in the summer maximum temperature and the winter minimum temperature rather than mean temperature.
机译：气候变化将通过影响能耗来影响温室气体（GHG）排放。另一方面，人口增长将在没有新技术或减排政策的情况下增加温室气体排放。本研究采用了MARKAL模型来评估了1998年到2032年多伦多 - 尼亚加拉地区（TNR）中温度和人口变化和群体的对能量需求和相关的温室气体排放的影响。一种常见（BAU）案件和三种情况开发和分析。 BAU案例根据来自当前社会经济发展水平的外推能量系统和温室气体排放。第一场景反映了响应平均温度变化的温室气体排放水平的变化。情景2将人口增长纳入情景1.方案3将种群增长与夏季最高温度和冬季最低温度而不是平均温度的变化结合在一起。

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