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Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Limitations, Pitfalls, and Practical Difficulties

机译:多标准决策分析:限制,陷阱和实际困难

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The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.
机译:2002年冬季奥运会妇女的花样滑冰竞赛被用作案例研究,以说明多标准决策分析(MCDA)的一些局限性,陷阱和实际难点。本文比较了几种广泛使用的模型,用于将多个属性合成为单个总值。即使在确定性的状态下,各种MCDA模型也可以为常见信息集的替代方案提供冲突排名。参与MCDA的分析师需要处理以下具有挑战性的任务:(1)选择适当的分析方法,以及(2)正确解释结果。额外的陷阱是实现可以使用定量分数欺骗用户的特定MCDA模型的软件工具的可用性。这些结论独立于决策领域,他们应该帮助促进在包括系统工程贸易研究的许多领域的更好的MCDA实践。

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