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首页> 外文会议>International Conference of System Dynamics Society >Policy and outcome contrasts in the evaluation of the effects of structural change in Swiss mountain agriculture using Linear Programming and System Dynamics
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Policy and outcome contrasts in the evaluation of the effects of structural change in Swiss mountain agriculture using Linear Programming and System Dynamics

机译：利用线性规划和系统动态评估瑞士山地农业结构变化影响的政策和结果对比

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摘要

Structural change in Swiss agriculture has been continuing over the last decade. This has not only led to a decline in agricultural employment and income generation, but also to land use changes with far-reaching consequences for the provision of landscape and ecology related public goods. Most affected by this development are peripheral regions in the Swiss Alps. They have at the same time experienced considerable support from regional policy measures in the past. However, both agricultural and regional policy are undergoing fundamental changes as a reaction to the effects of world trade liberalization, international integration and increasing national budget limitations. The policy measures therefore become increasingly decentralized and restricted to innovative projects based on local and regional initiatives. The task of local and regional decision makers has consequently shifted from implementing national strategies to launching and moderating such initiatives. A region's survival and quality of life no longer depend on the amount of money paid by the Federation, but on the initiation and the appropriateness of autonomous development strategies. Hence, decision support tools are required both for evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of new national or sectoral policy concepts and for estimating the economic, social and ecological impacts and trade-offs of specific local or regional development projects. Simulation and optimization models have proved useful in providing decision support for the development of effective and efficient policy measures.
机译：瑞士农业的结构变化在过去十年中一直在继续。这不仅导致农业就业和收入发电的下降，而且还对土地利用变化，对提供景观和生态相关公共产品的影响深远。受到这一发展的大部分影响是瑞士阿尔卑斯山的外围地区。他们在过去的区域政策措施中经历了相当大的支持。但是，农业和区域政策都经历了对对世界贸易自由化，国际整合和增加国家预算限制影响的反应的根本变化。因此，政策措施越来越多地分散，并限于基于当地和区域举措的创新项目。因此，本地和区域决策者的任务从实施国家战略转移到发动和抚养此类举措。一个地区的生存和生活质量不再依赖联邦支付的金额，而是对自主发展战略的启动和适当性。因此，需要决策支持工具，用于评估新的国家或部门政策概念的有效性和效率，并估算特定地方或区域发展项目的经济，社会和生态影响和权衡。仿真和优化模型证明有助于为发展有效和有效的政策措施提供决策支持。

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