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LNG MARKETS AND PRICE VOLATILITY

机译：LNG市场和价格波动

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This article describes the LNG markets with some insights from market theory and practice. The mechanism that enables proper price discovery is investigated, especially for gas markets in North America, the United Kingdom and Continental Europe. It is also argued that price volatility has many components, some that represent a first-order risk (like absolute price level) and others a second-order risk (like the locational basis which is the spread between a regional US gas index and the Henry Hub price). At some point, a global view is necessary: it acknowledges that LNG is the ultimate link between gas markets all over the world. Each market participant makes its own global analysis and then builds and pilots a porfolio of natural gas and LNG supplies vs. sales to end-users and wholesalers. As both gas wholesales markets and former gas monopolies have weakened over the past few years, we emphasis that the access to final customers is extremely important for securing LNG flows. Acquiring such gas marketing capabilities has been a strategic move made by Integrated Oil Companies (IOCs). Simultaneously, IOCs are becoming large LNG buyers from the upstream and liquefaction projects they have helped to set-up. Market participants cannot always match every purchase with every sale, for example because both horizons don't match as suppliers prefer long-term contracts but end-users prefer to buy their gas for next year only. Thus, their porfolio aggregates matching risks that must be identified and then managed. In effect, the mechanism of LNG markets are becoming closer to those previously applicable solely to natural gas markets.
机译：本文介绍了市场理论和实践中的液化天然气市场。能够调查实现适当价格发现的机制，特别是对于北美，英国和大陆欧洲的天然气市场。还认为价格波动有许多组成部分，一些代表一阶风险（如绝对价格水平）和其他人的二阶风险（就像区域美国天然气指数与亨利之间的蔓延一样集线器价格）。在某些时候，全球观点是必要的：它承认液化天然气是世界各地天然气市场之间的最终联系。每个市场参与者都制定了自己的全球分析，然后建立和试点天然气和LNG供应的Porfolio与销售到最终用户和批发商。由于天然气批发和以前的气体垄断在过去几年中削弱了，我们强调最终客户的访问对于确保LNG流动非常重要。获取此类天然气营销能力一直是综合石油公司（IOC）制造的战略举措。同时，IOC正在成为他们帮助建立的上游和液化项目的大型液化天然气买家。市场参与者不能总是匹配每次销售，例如因为供应商更愿意长期合同，但最终用户只享受明年的燃气。因此，他们的porfolio汇总必须识别的风险，然后管理。实际上，LNG市场的机制越来越接近以前适用于天然气市场的机制。

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