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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies >GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OF CO_2: A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING PERFORMANCE AND RISK
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GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OF CO_2: A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING PERFORMANCE AND RISK

机译：CO_2的地质储存：评估绩效和风险的统计方法

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Probabilistic and deterministic risk assessments were carried out by ECOMatters Inc. for the IEA Weyburn CO_2 Monitoring and Storage Project (the "IEA Weyburn Project"). The objective of this work was to understand and evaluate the geological storage of CO_2 from a risk assessment perspective within the context of a large enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project being carried out in the Weyburn field, which is part of the Williston Basin that straddles the Canadian (Saskatchewan) and USA (North Dakota) borders. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the preferred methodology for evaluating complex, long timeframe, process-driven problems such as the geological storage of CO_2. A unique, computationally-efficient model CQUESTRA-1 (CQ-1) was developed to rapidly assess the 1000's of cases required for a PRA, that statistically quantify the uncertainty associated with the many features, events and processes including their interactions over the long-term geological storage of CO_2. This paper focuses on the application of the PRA methodology to the Weyburn field and illustrates its use with data from an operating EOR pattern. Sensitivity analysis is used to identify those parameters that most influence (positively or negatively) releases to the biosphere and storage of CO_2 in the geological formations surrounding the reservoir. Deterministic calculations can also be carried out using CQ-1. Systematic calculations can be used in determining trends due to single parameter variation or best or worst case scenarios using combinations of parameters identified from the PRA sensitivity analysis. "What-if" or systematic studies of performance (e.g., leakage of CO_2 to the biosphere, effectiveness of the aquifers, aquitards and well components, ...) are, therefore, easy and instructive to assess. These studies could be used to develop site selection criteria for CO_2 storage in any geological media or evaluate mitigative strategies, with regard to both technique and timeframe, for well abandonment. The use of CQ-1 in a deterministic or RA mode is illustrated here with a base case study that uses the current best estimate of parameter values based on field or laboratory data and/or expert opinion.
机译：概率和确定性风险评估由Ecomatters Inc.进行IEA Weyburn Co_2监控和存储项目（IEA Weyburn项目“）。这项工作的目的是理解和评估在韦伊恩领域的大型增强型石油恢复（EOR）项目的背景下，从风险评估角度来看CO_2的地质储存，这是跨国跨国盆地的一部分加拿大人（萨斯喀彻温省）和美国（北达科他州）边界。概率风险评估（PRA）是评估复杂，长时间，过程驱动的问题的优选方法，例如CO_2的地质存储。开发了一个独特的计算效率模型CQuestra-1（CQ-1），以便迅速评估PRA所需的1000个案件，这统计上量化与许多特征，事件和过程相关的不确定性，包括它们在长期间的互动CO_2的术语地质储存。本文重点介绍了PRA方法对Weyburn字段的应用，并说明了与操作EOR模式的数据一起使用。敏感性分析用于识别大多数影响（正面或消极）释放到储层周围地质地层的生物圈和储存CO_2的参数。确定性计算也可以使用CQ-1进行。系统计算可用于确定由于单个参数变化或使用从PRA敏感性分析中识别的参数的组合的最佳或最坏情况场景而导致的趋势。因此，“什么 - 如果”的性能或系统的系统研究（例如，CO_2泄漏到生物圈，含水层的有效性，水管和井组件，......）都是简单且有效的评估。这些研究可用于在任何地质媒体中开发CO_2储存的现场选择标准，或者在良好的遗弃技术和时间范围内评估减要策略。这里使用基于现场或实验室数据和/或专家意见的基础案例研究，使用基本情况研究来使用基础案例研究，该基础案例研究使用基于场或实验室数据和/或专家意见的当前对参数值的最佳估计。

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