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Private-Public Cycle: Testing Hirschman's Theory of Shifting Involvements with a Formal Model

机译：私人公共周期：通过正式模型测试Hirschman的转移参与理论

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Why do societies oscillate, on a roughly twenty-year cycle, between modes of private acquisitiveness and public spiritedness? Albert O. Hirschman argues that disappointment is the main cause explaining why societies never stop shifting from an ideology promoting private interests to another philosophy which endorses public action and vice versa. The aims of this paper are to reconstruct Hirschman's reasoning using a System Dynamics approach and to build a simulation model reproducing the oscillations societies experiment between private and public interests. Our simulation results reproduce the behaviour implied by Hirschman, therefore showing evidence of the dynamic consistency of his argumentation. Furthermore, an example taken for a novel and empirical data, which represents the evolution of turn-out in the US, have been used to gain deeper support of our findings. Further research using this model is promising.
机译：为什么社会在私人获取方式和公众敏感的模式之间振荡，大约二十年周期？阿尔伯特O. Hirschman认为，失望是解释为什么社团永远不会停止从促进私人利益的意识形态转移到另一个赞同公共行动的哲学，反之亦然的主要原因。本文的目的是使用系统动态方法重建Hirschman的推理，并建立一种再现私有和公共利益之间的振荡社团实验的仿真模型。我们的仿真结果再现了Hirschman所暗示的行为，因此显示了他论证的动态一致性的证据。此外，用于新颖和经验数据的示例，它代表了美国的进出的演变，已被用来获得对我们的研究结果的更深层次的支持。使用此模型的进一步研究是有前途的。

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