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首页> 外文会议>Congress of Asia and Pacific Division of International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research >WATER SECURITY SCENARIO ANALYSIS:METHODOLOGY AND A CASE STUDY
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WATER SECURITY SCENARIO ANALYSIS:METHODOLOGY AND A CASE STUDY

机译：水安全情景分析：方法论及案例研究

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Water security concerns for developing and managing water resources in an equitable, efficient and integrated manner for human survival and well-being. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model for dynamic scenario analysis of urban water security strategies was set up based on the framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in sustainable development theory, as well as the interactive and dynamic relationship among socio-economic and environmental system. As a case study, the SD scenario analysis was applied into the water security systems scenario analysis for Jurong city of South Jiangsu province in China, and the corresponding water security strategies for sustainable development of this city were proposed as well. The results show that the SD based scenario analysis method is effective and can serve as the guidance for various stakeholders concerned in modifying water security strategies to achieve urban sustainability.
机译：水安全关注，以公平，有效和综合的人类生存和福祉的良好方式发展和管理水资源。在本文中，基于可持续发展理论中的压力 - 状态反应（PSR）框架，建立了一种用于城市水安全策略的动态情景分析的系统动态（SD）模型，以及互动和动态关系社会经济和环境制度。以案例研究为例，SD情景分析应用于中国南江苏省裕廊市的水安全系统场景分析，以及该市可持续发展的相应水安全策略。结果表明，基于SD的情景分析方法是有效的，可作为各种利益相关者的指导，以改变水安全策略实现城市可持续性。

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