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首页> 外文会议>Congress of Asia and Pacific Division of International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research >ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR ASSESSING RANDOMNESS IN DAM DESIGN, RISK AND SAFETY ANALYSIS-I: THEORY
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ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR ASSESSING RANDOMNESS IN DAM DESIGN, RISK AND SAFETY ANALYSIS-I: THEORY

机译：评估水坝设计，风险和安全分析中随机性的分析解决方案 - I：理论

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摘要

There is an increasing need for transparent and accurate method of quantifying uncertainty in outputs of multivariate functions of random variables (FRV) such as those used in design, risk and safety analysis of hydraulic structures. Conventional methods mostly employ the Monte Carlo Simulation Method (MCSM), which, as its name signifies, is a simulation method that is not more than approximation. However, more rigorous but accurate and theoretically founded analytical method could be tested and employed. The work herein discusses an analytical procedure for determining derived probability distributions for quantifying randomness in outputs of FRV in design, risk and safety analysis. First basic theories and proofs surrounding the analytical method are presented. Then, implementation architecture is developed and implications of the method on dam risk and safety analysis are discussed. A follow-up paper will demonstrate the proposed method on a case study.
机译：越来越需要量化随机变量（FRV）的多元函数输出输出中的不确定度的透明和准确方法，例如用于液压结构的设计，风险和安全性分析。传统方法主要采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法（MCSM），因为它的名称表示，是一种不超过近似的模拟方法。然而，可以测试和使用更严格但准确，理论上成立的分析方法。这里的工作讨论了用于确定衍生概率分布的分析程序，用于在设计，风险和安全分析中量化FRV输出中的随机性。提出了分析方法周围的第一种基本理论和证据。然后，讨论了实施架构并讨论了坝上风险和安全分析的方法的影响。后续纸将在案例研究中展示所提出的方法。

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