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ESTIMATION OF OCCURRENCE PROBABILITIES OF EXTREMEWATER LEVELS AT THE GERMAN BALTIC SEA COASTLINE

机译:德国波罗的海海岸线极值水平的发生概率估算

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In this paper some results of a collaborative research project are shown, dealing with extreme storm surges and determination of decisive design parameters at the German Baltic Sea coastline. Starting from meteorological analyses, weather situations were identified that are able to cause severe storm floods. With these data hydrodynamical models were run to calculate maximum water levels. One main objective within the analyses was to improve the estimation of occurrence probabilities of extreme events. This was done by using an integrated approach, where observed data, historical information and modelled extreme values were taken into account. The results are shown by the example of the gauge Travemunde (Southern Baltic Sea). The overall analyses show, that an improvement of understanding of extreme floods at the German Baltic Sea coastline can be achieved by looking at meteorology, oceanography, observed and historical water levels. The statistical extreme value analysis based on observed, historical and modelled data leads to authoritative estimations of occurrence probabilities of extreme events.
机译:本文展示了一些协作研究项目的结果,处理极端风暴浪涌和德国波罗的海海岸线的决定性设计参数。从气象分析开始,确定了能够引起严重风暴洪水的天气情况。使用这些数据,流体动力学模型被运行以计算最大水位。分析中的一个主要目标是改善极端事件发生概率的估计。这是通过使用综合方法来完成的,其中考虑了观察到的数据,历史信息和建模的极端值。结果显示了仪表曲线仪(南波罗的海)的例子。整体分析表明,通过观察气象,海洋学,观察和历史水平,可以实现对德国波罗的海海岸线的极端洪水的改善。基于观察到的历史和建模数据的统计极值分析导致极端事件发生概率的权威估算。

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