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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Engineering, Science, Construction, and Operations in Challenging Environments >Optimized O'Neill-Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities
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Optimized O'Neill-Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

机译：优化人类空间人口的奥尼尔 - Glaser模型及其对生存概率的影响

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Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. Estimates of the Earth's carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth's carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends - humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill-Glaser model (O'Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society. The model predicts that the human extinction probability is high in this generation unless humans expand into multiple independent habitats in space.
机译：两次当代问题预测从我们历史地球的工业经济转变为基于太阳系社会的习惯。首先是地球携带能力的限制，即地球在灾难性的影响到地球和人类物种的灾难性的影响之前，地球可以支持的最大数量。地球承载能力估计在14至40亿人之间有所不同。虽然在目前的人口增长率下，我们可能在达到地球的携带限制之前拥有多个世纪，但我们对行星规模的对气候和资源的影响正在科学地建立。第二个问题是知识和技术力量的指数增长。技术的指数增长与对高度智能种类独一无二的人口的指数增长相互作用。因此，由于技术进步，在很大程度上避免了对增长的限制的预测后果（世界饥荒等）。然而，在二十世纪中期，这两个趋势发生了批判性巧合 - 人类获得了灭亡行星规模生活的技术能力（核，化学，生物手段）并实现了扩大地球超越人类生活的能力。本文介绍了优化的O'Neill-Glaser模型（o'neill 1975; Trereri 2007; Detweiler和Curreri 2008）用于经济人类的空间。对该模型至关重要是利用外星资源，太阳能和基于间隔的劳动力。然后执行简单的统计分析，该分析预测了基于行星的技术社会与多个世界（独立栖息地）社会的鲁棒性。该模型预测，除非人类扩展到太空中的多个独立栖息地，否则本代人的消失概率很高。

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