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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Urban Planning, Regional Development and Information Society >Strategic Forecasting and Planning that City Planners can do Themselves: Examples of Simple but Powerful Visual Techniques for Specifying Urban Outcomes in Growing Metropolitan Regions
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Strategic Forecasting and Planning that City Planners can do Themselves: Examples of Simple but Powerful Visual Techniques for Specifying Urban Outcomes in Growing Metropolitan Regions

机译：城市规划人员可以做的战略预测和规划：简单但强大的视觉技术的例子，用于在不断增长的大都市地区指定城市结果

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Where urban regions are growing and changing quite rapidly, effective metropolitan strategies should be supported with quite detailed projections and descriptions of the region's future subregions, districts, centres and neighbourhoods. These descriptions should include, for instance, detailed and explicit forecasts, targets and specifications of future population densities and distributions, of future patterns of land use, and of the future social characteristics of neighbourhoods and districts. This detail is not a 'blueprint' or masterplan: it provides a meaningful picture of one possible set of outcomes of the present metropolitan strategy. These kinds of pictures are essential if stakeholders are to engage in a meaningful dialogue with the planners and decision makers. Perhaps even more importantly, these pictures can be continuously refashioned and updated as policies change and as the real city evolves. Without such a detailed picture of the future urban region, metropolitan strategies are not only vague and 'broad brush', but also inaccessible, weak, unconvincing and unable to influence the powerful actors who shape the future region through their day-to-day investment decisions. This paper presents three concrete examples of visual techniques for exploring and anticipating the future spatial characteristics of the urban region, techniques which are quite powerful but simple enough for the planners to use themselves, thus avoiding forecasts, population projections and scenarios which are driven by the practices and demands of other disciplines.
机译：如果城市地区正在增长和变化相当迅速，应支持该地区未来次区域，地区，中心和社区的相当详细的预测和描述的有效的大都市战略。这些描述应包括，例如，未来的人口密度和分布的详细和明确的预测，目标和规范，以及未来的土地使用模式以及社区和地区的未来社会特征。此详细信息不是“蓝图”或MasterPlan：它提供了本大都会战略的一组可能成果的有意义的图片。如果利益相关者将与规划者和决策者进行有意义的对话，这些类型是必不可少的。也许更重要的是，随着政策的变化，随着真正的城市的发展，这些图片可以不断地重新缩小和更新。没有未来城市地区的这种详细信息，大都市策略不仅含糊不清，而且“广泛的刷子”，而且也无法进入，弱，令人难以置信，无法影响通过他们日常投资来塑造未来地区的强大演员决定。本文介绍了探索和预测城市地区未来空间特征的三个具体示例，非常强大但足够简单的技术，以便规划者使用自己，从而避免由此驱动的预测，人口预测和情景其他学科的实践和要求。

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