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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology >ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT UNDER PRESENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS
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ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT UNDER PRESENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS

机译：在当前和未来条件下印度次大陆气象和水文极端的分析

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The Indian subcontinent poses extraordinary challenges to understand, quantify and predict hydro-climatic extremes (e.g. floods and droughts). The strong hydro-climatic gradient due to monsoon and the geographic features is linked to extreme weather events which threat life and significantly affect the country's economy. Climate change is expected to change the frequency and magnitude of the extreme weather events, consequently affecting river flow characteristics. In here, we investigate meteorological and hydrological extremes under the present and future climatic conditions driven by three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different emission scenarios allows for the assessment of uncertainty of future impacts. Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the DBS (Distribution Based Scaling) method and used to force the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate projections of river flow. We calculate the 12-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for various regions of different hydro-climatic conditions and investigate the changes of SPI from the present (1976-2005) to the mid (2021-2050) and end (2071-2100) century climate. In addition, Sen's non-parametric estimator of slope is used to calculate the magnitude of trend in high flows (99th percentile) at three main river systems, whose statistical significance is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. Overall, SPI differs between emission scenarios and future periods, whereas its value is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. The high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the hydrological impact model, and as a result the trend in high flows is subject to the climate projection. In general, results from all scenarios indicate increase in high flows with the changes becoming more remarkable at the end of the century.
机译：印度次大陆带来非凡的挑战理解，量化和预测的水文气候极端事件（如水灾和旱灾）。由于季风和地理特征的强烈水文气候梯度是与极端天气事件，威胁生命和显著影响该国的经济。气候变化预计将改变极端天气事件的频率和幅度，从而影响了河流的流动特性。在这里，我们研究了三个排放情景（RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5）驱动的现在和未来的气候条件下的气象和水文极端。采用不同排放情景下允许对未来影响的不确定性的评估。从CORDEX南亚框架气候预测已纠正偏置使用DBS（分配中的缩放）方法，并用于强制炒作（为环境水文预测）水文模型来生成河水流量的预测。我们计算了12个月的标准降水指数（SPI）针对不同的水文气候条件，各地区，各调查SPI从本（1976-2005），中期（2021- 2050）和结束的变化（2071年至2100年）世纪气候。此外，坡森的非参数估计是用来在三个主要河流系统，其统计显着性以Mann-Kendall检验评估来计算的高流量（第99百分位）趋势的程度。总体而言，SPI排放情景和未来期间之间是不同的，而它的值取决于该地区的水文气候梯度。在气候突起高度不确定性传播在水文碰撞模型，并且作为结果在高流量的趋势是受气候投影。在一般情况下，从所有场景结果表明增加高配的改变成为在本世纪结束时更为显着流入。

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