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Sequential selection of an optimal operating window

机译:顺序选择最佳操作窗口

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摘要

An important issue in construction, repair, maintenance and testing is the ability to select an optimal window of opportunity within a short-term period of time. This optimal window is typically governed by external variables, such as weather, or affected by operational conditions. A decision maker faces therefore sequential decisions to "start", or to wait for "better" conditions. We examine how this problem is best formulated, which optimization criteria make sense from an engineering point of view, which kind of "stopping" rules can be used, and which stochastic solutions or solution methods are known and/or available. We also discuss how discounting affects the decision making and its outcome, as in many practical situations "waiting" comes with an expensive price tag. The effect on the outcome of the selection process of assuming a simple dependence structure between the opportunities is also assessed. To illustrate the various formulations of this problem, we contrast different criteria and decision rules, assuming different scenarios.
机译:建筑,维修,维护和测试中的一个重要问题是在短期时间内选择最佳机会窗口。此最佳窗口通常由外部变量(例如天气)控制,或受运行条件的影响。因此,决策者面临着顺序决定“开始”,或等待“更好”的条件。我们研究如何制定这个问题,从工程学的角度来看,哪种优化标准是有道理的,这种类型的“停止”规则可以使用,以及已知和/或可用的随机解决方案或解决方案方法。我们还讨论折扣如何影响决策及其结果,因为在许多实际情况下“等待”附带昂贵的价格标签。还评估了在机会之间假设简单依赖结构的选择过程结果的影响。为了说明这个问题的各种配方,我们假设不同的场景对比不同的标准和决策规则。

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