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Sequential selection of an optimal operating window

机译：顺序选择最佳操作窗口

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摘要

An important issue in construction, repair, maintenance and testing is the ability to select an optimal window of opportunity within a short-term period of time. This optimal window is typically governed by external variables, such as weather, or affected by operational conditions. A decision maker faces therefore sequential decisions to "start", or to wait for "better" conditions. We examine how this problem is best formulated, which optimization criteria make sense from an engineering point of view, which kind of "stopping" rules can be used, and which stochastic solutions or solution methods are known and/or available. We also discuss how discounting affects the decision making and its outcome, as in many practical situations "waiting" comes with an expensive price tag. The effect on the outcome of the selection process of assuming a simple dependence structure between the opportunities is also assessed. To illustrate the various formulations of this problem, we contrast different criteria and decision rules, assuming different scenarios.
机译：建设，维修，保养和测试中的一个重要问题是能否在短期内选择最佳机会窗口。该最佳窗口通常由外部变量（例如天气）控制，或受操作条件的影响。因此，决策者面临着顺序的决定，以“开始”或等待“更好”的条件。我们研究如何最好地解决这个问题，从工程的角度来看，哪种优化标准有意义，可以使用哪种“停止”规则，以及哪些已知和/或可用的随机解或解决方法。我们还讨论了折扣如何影响决策及其结果，因为在许多实际情况下，“等待”带有昂贵的价格标签。还假设了机会之间采用简单的依赖结构，对选择过程的结果产生了影响。为了说明此问题的各种表述，我们在假定不同方案的情况下对比了不同的标准和决策规则。

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