For over forty years energy expectations have been riddled with internal contradictions, and all too often a failure to recognise complexity, the nature and scale of the challenges to be faced, and resultant uncertainty. Key elements of Shell’s “World of Internal Contradictions” scenario, issued internally in October, 1974, still hold good (though often overlooked even within Shell). Some other elements have since intruded, though they should not have been entirely unsuspected. The paper opens with a summary of the October, 1974, insights. In particular, three points stand out in that scenario book: “It is thought another regional conflict in the Middle East, further serious threats to energy supplies, or another currency crisis and recession, could well precipitate the world into this path.” “In the energy sector the supply problem is perceived as imposing a constraint on growth.” “Within most societies expectations outstrip the achievement potential as the ‘takers and dreamers’ have a more influential role.” The paper then surveys the evolution to the present time, and finally the likely challenges of things to come. The future, like the past, seems likely to be riddled with internal contradictions and failure to find satisfactory resolution of important challenges for the human race.
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