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首页> 外文会议>Biennial ISEM Conference on Ecological Modelling for Global Change and Coupled Human and Natural System >Simulation modeling for wetland utilization and protection based on system dynamic model in a coastal city, China
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Simulation modeling for wetland utilization and protection based on system dynamic model in a coastal city, China

机译：基于系统动态模型在中国沿海城市动态模型的湿地利用与保护仿真建模

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Wetlands are distributed between terrestrial ecosystem and aquatic ecosystem with unique hydrological and biological characteristics. However, increased human activities have caused wetland destroyed at alarming rates. Wetland conservation has become world's focus. Tianjin as one of China's developed cities is drawing the attention of the world. The wetland ecosystems in this area have been recognized for providing various ecological functions. Therefore, study on wetland utilization and conservation for this area is of great significance. This research deals with the dynamic simulation modeling of wetlands utilization and protection, and analysis on potential sustainable management policies. The objective of the study is to find a balance between economic development and wetland protection in this region. To this end, a system dynamic model for wetland management was constructed. The model was based on the analysis of 24 indexes and five subsystems, which are population, ecological, environmental, scientific, economic and social system. The statistical data in Tianjin from 1990 to 2008 have been used to verify the model. We also selected six typical models for scenario simulation in 2010, 2030 and 2050.The results show that: (1) Current wetland management approaches lead to wetland degradation; (2) Different scenario runs reveal that the other five wetland management models have obvious advantages; (3) The major causes for wetland degradation are unreasonable industry structure and environmental pollution. As for the alternative policies tested, 'controlling population', 'improving wetland restoration technology', and 'improving industry structure' are sustainable policies that lead to better conditions. Thus, we suggested that ecological protection, population control and industrial structure adjustment are sustainable approaches to achieve wetland wise utilization and protection in this area.
机译：湿地分布在陆地生态系统和水生生态系统之间，具有独特的水文和生物学特性。然而，增加人类活动导致湿地以惊人的速度被破坏。湿地保护已成为世界的重点。天津作为中国发达的城市之一就是吸引了世界的关注。该地区的湿地生态系统已被认可用于提供各种生态功能。因此，对该区域的湿地利用和保护研究具有重要意义。本研究涉及湿地利用和保护的动态仿真建模，以及潜在的可持续管理政策分析。该研究的目的是在该地区的经济发展与湿地保护之间找到平衡。为此，建立了一个用于湿地管理的系统动态模型。该模型基于对24项指标和五个子系统的分析，是人口，生态，环境，科学，经济和社会制度。 1990年至2008年天津的统计数据已被用来验证模型。我们还在2010年，2030年和2050年选择了六种典型的情景模型模型。结果表明：（1）当前湿地管理方法导致湿地降解; （2）不同的情景跑步表明，其他五个湿地管理模型具有明显的优势; （3）湿地退化的主要原因是不合理的行业结构和环境污染。至于测试的替代政策，“控制人口”，“改善湿地恢复技术”和“改善行业结构”是导致更好条件的可持续政策。因此，我们建议生态保护，人口控制和产业结构调整是在该地区实现湿地明智利用和保护的可持续途径。

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